You know, I’m feeling sorry for the weathermen today. They stand no chance. You see, a difference of 15 miles in the path of the storm passing through may turn out to be the difference in six inches of snow, and 16 inches of snow.

The problem (for them) is that they are dealing with a force of nature, so the storm’s path being “off course” is more like a rounding error in the marketing department’s birthday cake budget for Toyota. The entity doesn’t care.

But I digress to the action. You know, “2009-10 CAA Men’s Basketball” action. I’m going to get into trouble for writing this, but I cannot help noticing that the two games being moved for the snow are the two that pit bottom six teams vying for jersey color on Friday. The driveway has been shoveled so we can focus on four games involving the top six teams.

We’ll begin with the Fightin’ Pugs headed to Hotlanta to play Georgia State.

For all the guff we give the Panthers, here’s a historical note for you: GSUs conference wins since it joined the CAA are 3-5-5-8. Currently they are sitting 4-8, so in order to duplicate the eight wins and continue to climb, the Panthers will have to go 4-2 to finish the year. With a date in Matthews and Blaine’s Boys coming to town, they’re going to need this one.

In losing four of its past five, the Pugs have not shot greater than 40% from the field, including a 26% performance in its lone win over Drexel. They are ripe for the picking, especially considering Georgia State is at a confidence peak and at home.

Of course this means: Pugs 67, Panthers 61.

***

On to the second most compelling matchup of the weekend. Maybe third. Who cares. We’re talking NU at Hofstra.

Beach previews it better than I could. This includes a statement that I fully support: “I’ll freely admit I don’t know what to expect tomorrow.” Me neither, but I disagree with his “like 2005-06 Hofstra” team. NU is way more like the 05-06 UNCW team.

I’ll very cautiously take the Huskies. Both teams are playing well, but NU has been feasting on steaks while Hofstra has been zipping through the McDonald’s drive-thru. NU 58, Hofstra 53.

***

Mason at Drexel is next, in a game that I’m not sure will be played on time. We’ve received about eight feet of snow since I started writing this post, and I’m supposed to be on the easy side of the front.

I’ve figured out why Larranaga was so nervous before the Georgia State game. Mason has struggled on the road this year, going 5-8 away from the Pat Center. We thought they had it figured out, but winning thrice over JMU, Hofstra (when the Pride stunk), and Towson isn’t like striking out Lazzeri, Ruth, and Gehrig.

I don’t know that you want to face Drexel, in the DAC, coming off a loss. Good Cam was superb during Mason’s run, and Bad Cam reappeared against Georgia State the other night. Bruiser Flint catches grief for his coaching–some of it legit–but if I have to pick one coach to stop one guy in one game, Bruiser is no farther than second on my list. There’s a better chance we see Bad Cam or a rare appearance from Mediocre Cam.

It’s another Fouchapalooza in the DAC. Drexel 56, Mason 54.

***

And finally, we get to the game that needs no introduction. The ODU/VCU rivalry, despite what anyone says, is the best in the conference. Heated, hated rivals, through multiple conferences, always playing with something on the line, in front of sold out building despite (at least) a foot of snow on the ground.

Here’s the best part: they play high quality, flowing basketball games that are enjoyable to watch. The teams bring out the best in each other.

The particulars are here, but you know them. (Note to a national guy wanting to know what it all means: email me, I’m not getting into minutiae here. It’s worth it.)

Even more is possibly on the line: a top 50 roadie for ODU only strengthens its at large hopes. And I’m not willing to completely cede VCUs outside shot at the ALB. If the Rams win out, that’s 14-4, 23-5 with a quality noncon victim list.

Vegas usually give a team four or five points as a home cushion. VCU is about nine points better at home. The engine runs smoothly. There will be a middle second run where the Rams hit about three bombs and get two fast breaks and the roof blows off the Stu. (Ironic sadness, it comes at a time we’re all worried about the snow caving in the Richmond Coliseum roof.)

VCU 74, ODU 71.