We’ve long said some of our best ideas here are stolen, and adapted to our CAA World. Happened again yesterday, courtesy of our friends over at College Chalktalk.

The basic premise of the article is that the author took a look at home/road records from last year and applied them to the upcoming year. The goal: to see who may have a tough row to hoe next season.

It’s a little different for the CAA. We know who plays whom, based on a six-year system of rotating four single games plus two home/homes with five permanent partners.

These numbers cannot be taken in a vacuum. Obviously the teams at the bottom will have the apparent “tougher” record, because they lost the games to the top teams last year and that skews the purity of the number.

Plus, we need to factor in the prevailing beliefs of how next year will play out. Northeastern lost three starters and about 58 seniors–three shy of Georgia State. Hofstra had the entire CAA All Freshman team transfer out. ODU lost Gerald Lee and VCU lost Larry Sanders.

All of these things need to be taken into account, and it’s still May. Nothing is concrete, but this is a good starting point for us to discuss next year. The CAA Mantra is “win them at home and split on the road and you don’t play Friday.” We’ll leave you to figure out Your Team’s specific degree of difficulty in getting there.

Here’s the explanation: the first number is the combined 2009-10 home records of opponents that teams will face on the road in 2010-11. In parentheses is that team’s record at home and on the road last year. Following that is a sentence or two of influential factors.

Sorted by last year’s finish:

Old Dominion: 47-34 combined 2009-10 home record of opponents that ODU will face on the road in 2010-11 (ODU was 9-0 home, 6-3 road in 2009-10). Lost first team All CAA player Gerald Lee and role player Marsharee Neely. Adds key redshirt guard Josh Hicks.

Northeastern: 49-32 (7-2 home, 7-2 road). Lost first team All CAA player Matt Janning, as well as Manny Adako and Nkem Ojougboh. Chase Allen returns, and progression of last year’s freshman class is important. May be classic “better in February than December” team.

William & Mary: 48-33 (6-3 home, 6-3 road). Loses heart and soul in David Schneider, and enigmatic Danny Sumner. Kendrix Brown back healthy (bum foot last year) and good freshman class. JM Ludwick continues their tradition of funky but effective shooters.

Mason: 48-33 (7-2 home, 5-4 road). No significant losses–role players Lou Birdsong and Kevin Foster. Maturation of Sherrod Wright and Johnnie Williams key, as well as Cam Long choosing to be a superstar.

VCU: 45-36 (8-1 home, 3-6 road). Larry Sanders goes pro, but those close to VCU saw the Rams looked more cohesive with Sanders on the bench. Highly rated freshman class important, as is Jamie Skeen becoming a block force.

Drexel: 45-36 (7-2 home, 4-5 road). Core is back, most notably point guard Jamie Harris and soph Chris Fouch (fr to soph jump huge here). Kevin Phillip matters, as does Gerald Colds’s three-point percentage.

Hofstra: 47-34 (5-4 home, 5-4 road). No idea where to start here. New coach, two all freshman team players transfer out. Charles Jenkins is defending POY. Mike Moore coming in. Brad Kelleher finally plays. You tell me.

Towson: 48-33 (3-6 home, 3-6 road). Troy Franklin’s head is screwed on straight and Brian Morris hits the weights. Isaiah Philmore also needs to make that freshman-to-sophomore jump. Josh Thornton will be a little bigger loss than most think. Erique Gumbs is back, and Bob Nwankwo is a rock.

Georgia State: 53-28 (4-5 home, 1-8 road). Rod Barnes has eight new faces and loses Joe Dukes–as steadying influence for his team as existed in the conference. Jihad Ali looked very good late last year.

UNCW: 53-28 (2-7 home, 3-6 road). Until I started this exercise, it hadn’t hit me that UNCW lost seven of nine games at Trask. Wow. Anyway, Buzz Peterson is going to breathe some life into the program. John Fields is back, as is Chad Tomko and importantly Keith Rendleman. They have some pieces and parts.

James Madison: 52-29 (4-5 home, 0-9 road). The Dukes could be loaded. Give ‘Em Hell and Julius Wells return, and Devon Moore and Andrey “Drago” Semenov return from injury. Losing Darren White is a shame, but a summer of being beaten on will help Trevon Flores.

Delaware: 50-31 (3-6 home, 0-9 road). Lest ye forget, Brian Johnson is back. The Mc’s will also help, because it’s their second year in the program. Adam Pegg is gone, but Jawan Carter and Fonzie Dawson return.

I need time to stew over everyone. What say you?