“I think this success has created instability,” Zillmer added, talking about his own league. “You’d think it would have created stability. They were now in the position where they could say, how do we do this again? And how do we cash in on our success?”

It’s happened–VCU for basketball and ODU and Georgia State for football. The wake is quite messy. After the past week, I feel like the first thing we have to do is frame the issues in front of us.

Granted the issues are actually in front of the conference, presidents, and athletics directors the first week of June–hey Tom, did you mail my invitation?–but let’s get them into the open so we can all be prepared.

The Agenda

Situation Overview: The CAA has lost three schools in its membership and stands today with nine schools. VCU is going to the A10 on July 1, and Georgia State (Sun Belt) and Old Dominion (C-USA) will play lame duck 2012-13 seasons before heading to their new conference for the 2013-14 seasons.

These moves have created a full agenda for discussion, as they are all somewhat interrelated.

The 2012-13 CAA Schedule: The CAA must deal with 11 teams, two of which are, if you will, playing out the string. What is the construction of an 18-game CAA season?

Logically, we play eight teams twice and two teams once. Forget preferred partners and all that mess. Make it geographical for ease of travel or blind draw. They don’t need to over complicate this aspect. We have bigger fish to fry.

Remember, we have no Bracketbusters this year (yay!).

Voting on the No Play Rule: Old Dominion AD Wood Selig said today he would be stumping for votes to have this rule removed. Good for him, but I have four words: Ron Paul for President.

Vote for Exit Fee Raise: At some point in the past six weeks, it was a very dramatic moment when Tom Yeager announced he was calling a vote to raise the CAAs archaic $250,000 exit fee. It was more dramatic when the vote never took place. Then we all forgot about it.

It should be back on the agenda. In fact, I thought Yeager’s most interesting statement from today’s presser was when he said he didn’t believe exit fee money mattered, that a huge number may not be a deterrent.

Nonconference Scheduling: Yeager’s second-in-command, the lovable Ron Bertovich, talks to the coaches and ADs about smart scheduling every summer, showing them the model of what an at large team “looks like” in the eyes of the selection committee.

What is the impact on scheduling philosophies by not having VCU (immediate term) and Old Dominion (long term) and their top 100 RPI rankings? Those are gone, and through math, everyone’s RPI in the CAA gets deflated.

Money: How do we split up the gold mine of VCUs NCAA tournament money, silver mine of ODU money, and bronze mine of Georgia State money?

There’s the everybody gets and equal share method, and there’s the throw it into the pot and go 60/40 like every other NCAA tourney dollar method. I took a cursory glance at my excel spreadsheet that has the NCAA tournament dollar breakdown and excellence pool shares, and I know Tom O’Connor’s vote.

Note: I’ll dig into this probably over the weekend and report back.

The 2013 CAA Tournament: With UNCW and Towson ineligible due to low APR scores, VCU gone, and ODU and Georgia State ineligible due to the conference’s bylaw that states once you announce you are going to a new conference, you are ineligible for championships, the 2013 CAA tournament is currently a seven-team affair.

As mentioned, fat chance the presidents vote to overturn the no play rule, to get us to nine teams. That would require six of the nine presidents to agree. Otherwise, I assume the #1 seed gets a bye to Sunday’s semifinals and the others play on quarterfinal Saturday.

Moving the CAA Tournament: There’s never been a better time to strike for those looking to move the tournament to a more central location. The two programs that generated the most attendance are no longer in the event, and the closest geographical school is William & Mary–’round about 45 miles.

Plus, the contract with Richmond is due a dusting off as it’s up in two years. Honestly, it’s hard to argue against Baltimore at this point, but I’d move it to Philly–I like that city better.

The Boob Tube: Is there a net impact to the new television deal with NBCSports? Keep in mind the CAA is constructing a digital channel with NBCSports that has a lot of promise, too.

The Elephant in the Room: What of the other schools? JMU AD Jeff Bourne released a public statement that his school is very happy where they are. So did Jimmy Bass at UNCW, and I’m sure others that I haven’t seen in the whoosh of the past few days.

Let the tide roll back out, and let’s see where we are. But I’m betting we have a solid core and are doing nothing but moving forward.

Finally, what you really want, Getting Whole: The CAA is getting about its business of adding three universities. They’ve been mostly closed-mouthed about it, but Yeager let slip today that there is a storm brewing that could open up later this summer. We will see.

But who? When? Where? Look, we’ve all bandied about the obvious names and I don’t need to repeat them. Here’s the thing: everybody is going north and south. It’s legitimate–UNCW and the remaining Virginia schools could use a dance partner, as could Northeastern and Hofstra up north.

But why not go west? Cleveland State, Belmont, UNC Asheville? Be careful about getting hung up on brand and look to successfully building schools. It’s that trajectory thing.

And as we said: details on all these fronts are coming, and keep your mind open. The dumbest thing I’ve read over the past six is the “death of the CAA” meme. That’s idiotic.

The time has come to shift out of Zak Bagans mode, chasing the ghosts of rumor and the EVP baloney fed to us. At long last we get to look forward at reality–issues and strategies based on known data. There’s a lot to process thanks to the past six weeks.

We pride ourselves on perspective around here, and this entire realignment issue–stem to stern–is burning up brain cells at a faster rate that cell minutes. But we’re getting there, and I promise the next few weeks will produce some thought-starters for your walk up the 14th fairway or day on the beach.

It begins in earnest with tonight’s Work Session. Schedules, money, the CAA tournament, adding programs–all are on the agenda and bouncing around the noggin. We will begin to weave it all together for you.

Until then, here’s a few links to professionals who are doing a very good job with all of this:

NBCSports hoops head Mike Miller gives us numbers!

Gary Moore goes all level-headed on us with a well-done analysis.

Brian Mull talks to UNCW AD Jimmy Bass–bonus links there–and does a very good job outlining our position as we sit here today.

Ed Miller updates the ODU romance novel.

Dave Fairbank is perspective central. Keep going back into The Tarpit. And colleague David Teel continues to channel his inner James Brown–Teel is another must-read.

Ryan Kish nicely compares VCU and Mason’s decision and situation.

On Friday, Washington Post reporter Steven Goff dropped on us that George Mason chose to stay as a CAA member, thwarting overtures from the A10.

CBSSports reporter Brett McMurphy broke the story yesterday that VCU had decided to move to the Atlantic 10. Sometime between that nugget and late this morning, VCU and the A10 worked it out so that the Rams could immediately move and compete in their new conference.

Attention now shifts east down I-64 to Old Dominion. The Monarchs and C-USA have been making googly-eyes at each other for the past few weeks. Ed Miller and the Dynamic Duo of Dave Fairbank and David Teel are all over this story.

***

As for VCUs move, Dr. Michael Rao had all the expected things to say at VCUs 1:30 presser.

On leaving the CAA: “The CAA has been a great home to VCU for 17 years, so the move is bittersweet…”

On reasoning behind the move: Rao sees “national visibility and media markets…” and “…significant increases in revenue sharing” in the A10.

About the importance of moving immediately: …”being sure our student-athletes and coaches have the opportunity to compete for a championship…” (Didn’t want them to be in a lame duck situation.)

On reasoning for the move: “(We have) a whole lot more to gain by leaving and a whole lot more to lose by staying…”

About there being more pressure to make the NCAA tournament: “Absolutely. We wouldn’t want it any other way.” And: “You engage to win. You play to win.”

Interim athletics director David Benedict noted that the school’s overall travel expenses will rise by $150,000, and that the A10 entry fee is $700,000.

Shaka Smart did not appear but made a prepared statement:

“We are extremely excited by the opportunity to join the Atlantic 10 Conference. It is a phenomenal league, made up of programs with both rich traditions and recent track records of success. We are very appreciative of the time we spent in the CAA, the experiences we had and the relationships we gained. We plan to maintain our key rivalries with CAA teams, now and in the future. We are enthusiastic about attacking the challenges that lie ahead. Our number one goal remains to move our student-athletes forward, both on and off the court.”

***

Couple items:

There’s scheduling: VCU already has nonconference games against Richmond and George Washington on its schedule. Granted there’s no rule preventing either game from being played and counted as a nonconference game, but you have to imagine VCU will be looking to replace them. Easy fix #1–slot Old Dominion into the Richmond spot, and George Mason into the GW spot.

There’s the money: By my count, VCU was due $604,000 this year and about $847,000 next year. What does the CAA do with the money? If there’s an even split, that’s about $60K per school this year (10 teams splitting); and about $70K next year (assuming CAA back to 12 teams). Or, the money could go back into the Excellence Pool, which means I dive back into excel.

There’s the reality: This is just beginning for us. The CAA now has two schools to replace, and perhaps a third.

VCU has scheduled a press conference for 1:30 today, and the Atlantic 10 will hold a telephone presser at 2:30 today.

The decision comes on the heels of George Mason announcing it will remain in the CAA for at least next season, and Old Dominion’s Board of Visitors discussing its potential move to C-USA.

More details as they become available.

The past two weeks we’ve stood in line, waiting for our turn on the rollercoaster. Jim Miller, the athletics director at University of Richmond, got us to the front of the line last night. Miller used pointed words and direct characterizations in an interview with ESPN950s Greg Burton. (The link is Mat Shelton from VCURamnation’s transcribing of the thinly-veiled red carpet treatment Miller offered.)

We’ve progressed from that point today. Ed Miller the ODU beat writer unearthed that Jim Miller the AD’s purported Monday announcement from ODU that the ‘Narchs are bolting for C-USA is “way too soon.” There remains clear clatter from the VCU lawn on their A10 decision. And there’s crickets coming from Mason, which rings just as loud.

Make no mistake–we are sitting at the top of that first big drop on the Realignment Rollercoaster.

The impending announcements will generate thrills, fear, laughs, euphoria, doubt, anticipation, and wonder. There will be undoubted twists and turns and loop-de-loops.

Some will vomit.

We will likely get on the ride again.

But here we are, on the precipice. One of my sources advised me to carry my cell phone with me at all times.

Hands up!

PS–the lookback on this entire process is going to be outstanding.

Gonzaga is nationally-known, plays on national teevee against national opposition, and recruits nationally. They’ve got a pretty good thing going, no?

They aren’t doing it alone. They are buffeted by two very strong and very complementary programs in St. Mary’s and BYU. San Francisco and Santa Clara are up-and-coming programs, and the rest of the West Coast Conference is all about investment and forward motion. Success begets success, and it’s working for the WCC.

Any of that ring a bell?

Any rumblings of the demise of the WCC because its three bell cows are looking to bolt? There must be a reason.

Everyone wants to be “The Gonzaga of….” but that isn’t the point. This is about aspirations. Gonzaga, and the entire WCC, are aspiring to bigger and better things–more money and prestige and recognition. Those goals are fueled by wins and NCAA tournament success.

Roth likely knows that what he wants for his athletics department is happening awfully successfully, right where they sit now and with the help of great conference partners. The school continues to make NCAA tournaments and win games. They’ve been joined by St. Mary’s (two at large bids) and now BYU. The rest of the conference is investing more money and getting better.

Roth knows that in this turbulent NCAA landscape, there’s safety in numbers and sticking together. There’s also a lot of money in this cycle of success.

I actually believe ODU holds the key to the CAA sticking together. The Monarchs have executed their football plan with incredible precision and with astounding success. A jump to 1A football now blows up that path, throws a charging train off the tracks. It would be a mistake. But if Wood Selig wants to buy himself another three years to make that decision, a better decision, who should he call? Why Tom O’Connor and Dave Benedict of course.

You know, if those three got on a boat with Tom Yeager…

Today’s announcement that Big East commissioner John Marinatto had his horse saddled for him has fueled speculation that the Big East basketball programs have a Big East plan of attack. It may or may not include Atlantic 10 stalwarts Xavier and Dayton. And while this is every bit as speculative as every other scenario tossed forth in the past five weeks, it certainly adds an element of risk to a move to the A10.

I stand by the assertion that this move, any move really, is all about making the NCAA tournament, and winning games. It is nowhere near the layup most people think, and all three schools in the lurch–VCU, ODU, and Mason–have a taste of that already. While everyone has concerned itself with the CAA five years from now, perhaps they should give the same rigor to the A10.

WCC side note: the conference added Pacific for 2013-14 to balance it out. Pacific was an original member of the conference and returns. That’s pretty cool, isn’t it Jim Miller?

Here’s what I do, immediately, if I’m Yeager. I make three phone calls: Wood Selig, Dave Benedict, and Tom O’Connor.

“I’ve fully stocked my boat and it’s harbored on the York. Meet me there at 1:00pm. Come in shorts and t-shirts and plan to stay through dinner. We’re going to sit down and talk this out. By the end of the day, we will know where we stand.”

I get them on the boat and we talk about having an earnest conversation. I want everybody to put the cards on the table that are responsible, but we will be honest. I talk about the growth of the conference and that these three schools have been the primary drivers.

I’m honest as well. I talk about what the conference is doing, especially as it relates to replacing Georgia State. (Side note: remember in all the craziness the CAA still has to replace Georgia State.)

We talk about the issues and opportunities, and we talk about the future. All three ADs talk about the benefits to their institutions of leaving the CAA. I want to understand that.

Then, the steaks hit the grill and we continue the discussion.

There’s actually a fourth phone call I make if I’m Tom Yeager. It’s to CAAHoops, because someone should be on hand to document the day.

***

You see, I think this entire realignment fiasco is a product of fear, and distrust. This is not just an unfamiliar situation–it is unprecedented in scope and speed, and that serves to throw gasoline on the fire. Yes it’s happening, but it’s clumsiness is galling.

The administrations fear the unknown, fear the numbers, fear a disastrous decision. They fear a disastrous non-decision, too. As David Teel so perfectly said, nobody wants to be left without a seat when the music stops.

And that’s where distrust enters the picture. Every single scrap of information must go through the truth filter. The breathless reports that explode through twitter are a combination of solid, sourced material, intentional placement, and hopeful pasta throwing.

Those are the conversations we know. Imagine the brain cells cycling through the phone calls of the men and women charged with making the decision.

It isn’t easy and there’s a part of me that feels sorry for these administrators–this is big and new and fast running through systems and procedures that are not set up to handle more than one of those factors at a time.

Tack onto that your role of Thomas, wondering if you’re talking with Judas. If you’d like to know why these people make so much money, June 2012 is your answer.

Those two emotional factors are complicated by the ADD attention-getters in all of this: speed, and money. Make no mistake, that’s what this is about and that’s the problem. Celerity makes people act irrationally. Money certainly makes people act irrationally.

Speed plus money rarely leads to good decisions, and throws roadblocks into success. You chase dollars fast and there are problems you don’t foresee. We’re in the Roaring Twenties of college athletics. That was fun, too, but check your history books on how that ended.

And that brings us back to Tom Yeager’s boat.

I’m old school and an idealist. I believe they need to get away and sit in front of each other. Look at each other face-to-face, eye-to-eye, man-to-man. They need to leave all the bullshit on land and just work through it.

This isn’t even a pro-stay column. When the day ends all three could be on their way to new conferences. The point is that they could move forward and agree that they all dealt with facts, understood nuance, and gave the issues proper due diligence to come to an understanding.

We’re in a world driven by 140-character bites. We get bad rumors, bad journalism, bad innuendo – and bad decisions. All I want, if I’m Tom Yeager, is six straight face-to-face hours with nothing to distract us.

Many of the people who make these decisions won’t be around for the aftermath, nor will many of the coaches. The players certainly won’t. If someone makes the “right” decision, they’ll move up. If someone makes the “wrong” decision, they’ll be gone – and someone else will be left to clean up their mess.

Just head down I-40 and have a conversation with Jimmy Bass and Buzz Peterson. Ask them about the fallout from decisions made based on an emotional starting point.

Stay or go? That remains to be answered. But if the key people could just sit down, together and with no distraction, perhaps the madness ends and they have a better chance at making that “right” decision.

We could at least have a dash of honor to these proceedings no matter how they end.

In 2005-06, UNCW enjoyed probably its finest season as a basketball program: the Seahawks won the CAA regular season in what is no worse than the second-strongest year in conference history. They also won the conference tournament and nabbed an eight seed in the NCAA tournament.

Though UNCW lost a gut-puncher to George Washington in the first round of the NCAA tournament, that season made its mark. Trask was full, rocking, and hot. Brad Brownell had guided the program to its greatest heights–83 wins over his four seasons and a 52-20 CAA mark. All was right with the world.

But Mike Capaccio, then the UNCW athletics director, spent most of the season locked up with Brownell over a contract extension. It was an ugly negotiation with a net result: Capaccio could’ve locked up the highly successful and highly popular head coach for five years for what amounted to $50,000 per year.

The UNCW offer was reported to be in the $210,000 range and two years, and in the words of then-Chancellor Rosemary DePaolo (to the Wilmington Star News’s Neil Amato), was a “very fair and generous” offer to keep Brownell.

Brownell balked, all the way back to Ohio where he went to the NCAA tournament and won 23 games with Wright State–two more victories than three whole seasons combined for UNCW in their four under Benny Moss. Buzz Peterson continues to dig the Seahawks out of that mess.

That Moss was a poor hire is mere shrapnel from the core issue. At hand is something Capaccio and DePaulo didn’t have the vision to foresee. In fairness, perhaps nobody could’ve, and they are most guilty of making a bad call at an inopportune time.

The active issue is the administration’s refusal to invest in a coach who was winning basketball games and furthering a tradition. The CAA, at least success in the CAA, became a living arms race that 2005-06 season.

It has only intensified in the years since. “Very fair and generous” would no longer suffice as enough to succeed in the growing CAA.

***

Sure, there was the second bid in 2006 and the Mason Final Four run and all the piggy bank stuffing that came with it. But what it represented meant far more. Mason’s Final Four run, for all the bluster, was Paul Revere riding the streets of Boston. It broke outmoded thinking; that teams from conferences such as the CAA and West Coast and MAC could play on the elite stage.

It said to mid major schools that it can be done. “It” is more than an upset win and two days of grandeur. “It” is multiple successes, in a row, and the financial rewards that go with it.

Jim Larranaga received a fat raise and promises of better facilities, but that’s expected reward. What changed was that every other CAA athletics director suddenly had a twinkle in his eye.

Sure, hurdles existed. Yesterday’s news syndrome persisted, and doubters could drop the f-word whenever it fit. A fluke run, they’d say, a monumental gamble to think it could be done again. There would be a few years convincing the doubters, and rightfully so. Even those who believed had to harbor a measure of doubt.

Then VCU beat Duke (and nearly Pittsburgh) in the year ODU received an at large bid. And ODU beat Notre Dame. Suddenly, what a fan calls “making noise on a national stage” was occurring and CAA administrations were taking note.

Northeastern pledged $10 million to renovate and update Matthews Arena. Towson began to fast track a $7 million plan to flip its arena, literally rotating the court 90 degrees. UNCW made its fateful hire of Moss and paid him $182,000–nearly the midpoint between what Brownell was making and what Brownell wanted. VCU gave its coach, Anthony Grant, a big raise. One year later when Grant left for Alabama VCU athletics director hired an unknown assistant from Florida named Shaka Smart for nearly $300,000.

You may know the name Shaka Smart, and his current $1.2 million compensation package.

The arms race had begun, fueled by a lethal combination of financial rewards and proof that it can be accomplished. It proved the cycle of success—win, gain reward, invest, win—was attainable at the CAA level.

The spring of 2010 turbo charged the race. Hofstra coaxed Tim Welsh out of the broadcast booth with a five-year deal in excess of $600,000. That became more eye-popping 30 days later. Welsh resigned after an arrest on suspicion of DUI, so Hofstra turned to Mo Cassara, who had never coached a division one game in his life and was sleeping in a Hofstra dorm pondering getting out of coaching altogether. Cassara, with as many division one victories as Smart, was also paid more than $300,000.

Bill Coen at traditionally frugal Northeastern was given a giant raise. In fact, in one of the world’s most cruel ironies, UNCW paid roughly $435,000 to get its replacement for Moss, Buzz Peterson.

In just four years UNCW nearly tripled what it chose to pay its head coach.

***

It isn’t just paying to keep great coaches to protect continuity and identity.

Rumors swirled about luxury boxes at VCUs Siegel Center and they were built for the start of the 2011-12 season. ODU has a practice facility plan (since the Ted Constant Center is already the league’s nicest game facility). It was announced last December that the $8 million facility was a reality.

James Madison became active, moving forward a plan to improve its aging Convocation Center. However their $10 million renovation plan was put on hold because building a brand new basketball facility was put on the school’s strategic master plan. It passed the Virginia Assembly last month.

Delaware just completed its $23-million, 52,000 square-foot practice and office facility that adjoins the Carpenter Center arena. Northeastern spent that $10 million upgrading Matthews Arena, and cash-strapped UNCW raised $2 million privately to fund a brand new video scoreboard among other improvements to Trask.

Mason followed suit, finding it necessary to install a new video board during the season last year. VCU is now debating whether or not a $9 million practice facility will suffice. In the wake of its 2012 regular season championship, Drexel extended the contract of Bruiser Flint and pledged what will be $15 million to renovate the DAC.

Perhaps nobody represents the arms race better than Towson. The Tigers were the first team in CAA history to finish the season winless in conference play two seasons ago (0-19), but new AD Mike Waddell keeps his foot on the gas. Pat Skerry was hired to replace Kennedy and is making more than $400,000. Waddell scrapped the $7 million renovation to Towson arena in favor of a brand new building. Towson is building a new, 5,000-seat arena expected to be completed in 2013.

It doesn’t stop there. Towson is furiously releasing new websites, mobile phone apps, and hired a digital marketing expert.

Everybody is spending or pledging money in what has been a down economy.

***

When VCU pulled off its First Four to the Final Four, the run was as lucrative as it was amazing. The Rams will receive the prime cut from the NCAA tournament steak—roughly $250,000 for each of its five wins.

Let’s be clear. This isn’t about Final Fours. If we’re being honest, both Final Four runs were dream scenarios and cannot be considered norm. However the expectation of Sweet 16 appearances is very real. That VCU—with the ninth youngest team in the nation, supposedly rebuilding, and playing in a “down CAA,”—was disappointed when it didn’t make the Sweet 16 is a harbinger.

The point is that advancing to Sweet 16s is very similar to the economics of being a mid major coach—you can make an awfully nice living. This isn’t 1994—heck, this isn’t 2004—anymore. The CAA is nationally relevant and proves it every season. Now, there’s the larger checks that go with it—the cycle of success.

You don’t need miracles, just great play, which starts with great players. The reduction of scholarships and the increase in television has, over time, evened the playing field. Now, the CAA is on equal footing as the middle of a BCS conference. You put yourself in a position to succeed, and if everything breaks your way at the right time, you’re in the Sweet 16.

It’s worth noting that the deepest runs by CAA teams have been made by its at large berths. VCU proved you can finish fourth, make the dance, and commence dancing. It all matters, especially since basketball is the most efficient means of generating revenue; big revenue and big exposure. Who wouldn’t want that, when your annual operating expenses are less than $3 million and you only have to pay for 13 scholarships?

The CAA arms race is working. Investments are paying off, and the wins continue to stack up.

***

You’re either in the game or not. And here we are, with VCU and Mason openly flirting with the Atlantic 10 and reports that Old Dominion has one foot in Conference USA.

Both VCU and George Mason have invested in basketball and don’t carry the at best distraction and at worst financial drain of football. Both programs are well placed to succeed mightily with this move.

The theory: the A10 a better place. It must be. After all it’s a better basketball conference. But is it a better situation?

I’ve seen every speculative argument for every conference affiliation. Every one of them suggests the implosion of the CAA. Now let’s just say, for one moment, the CAA is being aggressive behind the scenes.

Let’s say Tom Yeager is negotiating an alteration to the CAA Excellence Pool that allows the teams that earn the units/money to keep a greater percentage. Let’s say Yeager is deep into negotiations with Davidson and College of Charleston.

Those two schools replacing ODU and Georgia State?

Think maybe Rhode Island is a little nervous with the rumors of a Big East hoops conference made up of private, Catholic schools? Let’s say they want a new home.

I’m not saying this will happen or is even being discussed. All I’m trying to do is get you to think—is it really that unrealistic? How come every scenario is a CAAtastrophe?

Just because you aren’t reading about something doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. I’ve always held that as long as Yeager can keep two of VCU, Mason, and Old Dominion the conference will be fine. The rest of the conference—as evidenced by the first two sections of this piece—is investing to grow to compete with them.

It’s trajectory.

A closer look at the numbers reveals the move does not offer a gaping hole in guaranteed revenue unless one specific scenario occurs.

VCU stands to gain about $5 million from its NCAA tournament performance over the next six years. That’s roughly $830,000 per year for the duration. Mason’s numbers are not as high, but remember they’ve earned excellent pool units at a high rate and have an NCAA tourney victory for five more years of payout.

At current levels.

There’s always the potential excellence pool renegotiation, a cut of ODUs money if the Monarchs choose to move, and additional money from additional NCAA appearances and victories.

In the past six years the A10 has accrued 33 NCAA tournament units. At $240,000 per unit as an average, that’s $7.92 million in NCAA tournament revenue.

The A10 gives 75% to the school that earns it, and splits 25% among the other members. When you take 75% from the $7.92 million, you are left with $1.98 million to split 13 ways among the remaining schools. That works out to a whopping $152,307.70 for each school.

What’s more, if the A10 operates like the CAA and uses its AQ unit to underwrite operating costs for the conference, the units total becomes 27 and the revenue number falls to $124,615.40 per school. That’s a long way from $830,000.

So the A10 will use Temple’s forfeited units to help? In that time span, Temple earned six units, which equates to $1.44 million (at the $240K number). Factor in that 25% of that money is distributed to the rest of the conference and you are left with $1.08 million.

Butler, Mason, and VCU will want that deal so we have to split it three ways. So the one-time payment is $350,000—enough to cover the CAA exit fee plus a buy game or two.

[EDIT] The A-10 distributes its money differently from what we’re used to seeing. They don’t isolate the NCAA tournament units. The A10 takes all its revenue–NCAA, teevee, etc.–and throws it into a kitty.

They take roughly $4.5 million per year for operating expenses out of that kitty. What’s left is then split 25% to all 14 schools, and 75% to the credit-earners.

This fiscal year the A-10 had roughly $9.5 million in revenue. Remove the operating expenses to get us to $5 million.

We take 25% of that $5 million to get a shared pool of $1.25 million. Split 14 ways the equal share distributed by the conference is $89,285.71 per school.

The other 75%, or $3.75 million, is split according to units. There were 33 units that divide to $113,636.40 per unit.

The point, and it’s inescapable: a successful move to the A10 wholly depends upon making the NCAA tournament as a member of the A10, and winning games. Everything else is cocktail party conversation.

And that’s a huge risk. Both Mason and VCU are at the top of the CAA and will compete for conference championships every year. Heck, there’s no program in the country in a better position to win its conference tournament than VCU.

Both would turn their back on guaranteed revenue and be forced into increasing expenses in order to compete in the A10. That’s asking a lot in an ever-changing NCAA landscape.

Old Dominion, however, is a bit exposed. The Monarchs have placed a wager on football, and appear to be in a bit of a pickle. It’s as if Wood Selig’s 10-year plan has been cut by half. Selig is making decisions in year three he was hoping to make in year eight.

My personal opinion is that ODU moving to C-USA right now is a terrible mistake. I don’t see the money in non-BCS, 1A football and I think it’s a long-term athletics killer. Maybe that changes in five years when the NCAA landscape changes once again.

And just maybe Wood Selig sees that and thwarts C-USA for now. Nobody said the summer of 2012 would be the only opportunity to change conferences.

Then, maybe we end up with a 14-team CAA that swaps Georgia State for Charleston, Davidson, and (insert school).

How do you like it now?

***

I’m not saying Old Dominion, VCU and George Mason should stay in the CAA. The new conferences may indeed be smart moves that pay off. I can plainly see the rewards, and they are great. All I want you to consider is the alternative; the scenario we haven’t read in all of this. The fall is just as precipitous.

I see a CAA that has made progress, and investments that are beginning to come to fruition. It’s like Shaka Smart said when he parried yet another BCS job: “…it’s not like I needed to jump out a window of a burning building. I’m at a really good place…”

In the CAA, $50,000 used to matter to its most successful team. Now, it’s a rounding error. Think about that.

***

When we purchased the home I live in, it had a gravel path that circled the back deck. It was useless. Remnants of grass and weeds stuck through it all summer long and it needed constant attention.

I tried everything to improve it. Finally, I planted grass over it. The seed is coming in, and the view from my deck makes it look lush. But when I step off the deck down onto that grass covered path, I still wear flip flops because of the rocks.

You see, the grass is indeed always greener, but sometimes you don’t know the pitfalls until you walk on it.

“Did you see Dave Teel’s column?”

I knew I had to call a 30-second timeout, and it wasn’t due to the huge run that reduced Scrabble to garbage time wordplay. Teel is the real deal, an award-winning reporter for the Daily Press in Hampton Roads. He isn’t exactly unsourced.

Teel wrote over the weekend that outgoing VCU athletics director Norwood Teague is recommending to university president Dr. Michael Rao that VCU stay in the CAA for at least one more season. Reportedly, that recommendation officially hits Rao’s desk today.

My sources corroborate that story, and it’s important for one reason, and one reason only–that takes the notion of VCU leaving the CAA immediately to play in the A10 for the upcoming 2012-13 season off the table. Anything past that one simple fact is speculating.

Basically, it removes one variable to this entire realignment slog.

Further, Teague begins his new job at Minnesota on July 1. Per sources, his last day as a VCU employee is May 12. VCU, and Teague, will spend the next couple of weeks identifying and naming an interim replacement, as well as establishing the search committee for his final replacement.

Rao is meeting with the athletics department this morning (Monday), presumably to begin this process and to update the staff on where they sit in the overall picture.

My opinion: Leadership matters, immensely. So I’d figure priority one is sorting out the AD situation so they can move to priority two, the actual decision. That’s how I’d approach it anyway.

Keep in mind the July 1 date. This is the cutoff for NCAA tournament money for the 2011-12 fiscal year. It is also the gateway to either George Mason or VCU entering the Atlantic 10 and playing in the 2013-14 season.

Even if Rao concurs with the recommendation of Teague to wait, there is no strong impetus for that to be announced on July 1, or July 2. This could be an all-summer evaluation that will likely walk up to some vague statute of limitations deadline for progress, as it should be. This isn’t like ordering the “A10″ or “CAA” off a menu. There are complicated variables and that takes time to parse.

Lest you forget, neither the Atlantic 10 nor either school has actually said any of this exists in reality. It’s all unofficial office romance right now.

It appears that neither VCU nor Mason has made its final decision, rumor mill and office gossip be damned. Teel got us one step closer, but we’re still in a gargantuan spin cycle of guessing.

In short, lots of spaghetti is hitting the kitchen wall, most of which continues to fall to the floor.

Nothing has changed. Still.

So this random man rounds first base–the official defensive position of the slightly-overweight, slightly-old but unrelenting player–and the following sequence occurs:

Me: “Nice swing.”

Random: “Thanks.”

Ball one.

Random: “What are the chances Shaka goes to Tech?”

Me: “What? Oh, none.”

Foul ball.

Random: “Not at all?”

Me: “Okay, 99.8%.”

The brief conversation left me with one reaction: #STDGA.

***

A source told me that the VCU search for a replacement for Norwood Teague, interim or full time, is “ongoing.” Related, a VCU Board of Visitors meeting was put on the schedule, then cancelled. Love those non-answers, but they were instructive. Relax.

My opinion, and it is opinion only: all this May 1 guff is a bunch of hooey. I’ve called sources from both conferences and various schools. Not one person can give me one reason why May 1 matters, and these are smart people.

Now, June 30 matters. It’s the end of the fiscal year, the cutoff date for the NCAA tournament money, and the theoretical cutoff date if Mason or VCU wanted to play in the A10 immediately instead of waiting a year and having a lame duck CAA season. That’s your dartboard date.

And here’s the thing. I know we live in a hyper-connected world and the gratification of immediacy is even more attainable than ever. Twitter allows everyone to know everything every minute. It’s like that final scene in the movie War Games, when Joshua is playing out scenarios and bombs are dropping and there’s that old computer mushroom visual of the damage. It balloons, and there are no winners. Our response to every single tidbit is almost comical, and we’re all guilty.

All of this is real, but our ability to consume information does not accelerate the decision-making process. Universities will take their time, conduct proper analysis, and discuss options. They will weigh them with all due rigor. So, too, will each conference.

I could be way wrong, but I just don’t seeing that being a 45-day process. A part of me would hope it isn’t, anyway.

***

Some news:

More than half the conference is playing in an exempt event this upcoming season: Hofstra is playing in the 2K Sports Classic, James Madison in the Legends Classic, Mason in the Paradise Jam, Delaware in the Preseason NIT, Northeastern in the Great Alaska Shootout, VCU in the Battle 4 Atlantis (Bahamas), Drexel in the Anaheim Classic.

Ed Miller has a story on ODU assistant Lonnie Blow returning to St. Augustine’s as its head coach. John Richardson–late of Virginia Tech–has returned as an assistant coach. Blaine Taylor is reorganizing his staff–longtime assistant Rob Wilkes had taken an administrative role in the athletics department but may be back on the bench.

Buzz Peterson signed a point guard, Chris Dixon from Redlands junior college in Oklahoma. Dixon is the second signee to offset the loss of Donte Morales, KK Simmons, and Adam Smith–the trio of Dubmen who asked to transfer from the program earlier this spring.

Dave Fairbank has an outstanding column quoting William & Mary athletics director Terry Driscoll on his view of the realignment and what it means in Williamsburg. Driscoll’s words have stirred up quite the reaction from Tribe fans.

Paul Hewitt signed 6-9 forward Marko Gujanicic in the latest attempt of CAA coaches to test my spelling and typing ability.

Here’s a Pat Skerry interview with the Towson media guy.