Predictions are hilarious. I’ve tried to get rid of them for three years, but they continue to drive loads of traffic and conversation. Mike Holmes, the erstwhile SID at Georgia State, caught on quickly to how his school’s success rate is impacted: I pick Georgia State to lose, and they win. Therefore Holmes is pleased when I pick Georgia State to lose.
Such is life.
As I mentioned the other day, you need to take the scores with a grain of salt. If learned, informed, prepared men like Blaine Taylor or Bill Coen or Matt Brady aren’t sure, how can I be so certain? I can’t.
But I have an approach, and it makes sense. We were all schooled when we catch the ball in the middle of the floor the first thing we should do is to look opposite. It’s the first thing I do when looking at games–of course Old Dominion is going to drill William & Mary tomorrow. But why might the Tribe win?
So the plan begins by trying to figure out why a certain team might win a game. Then, I think about esoteric concepts like momentum, emotion, and recency. What has happened in the past week that may stick in the noggins of everybody directly involved with the game? Then I head to Ken Pomeroy and eat up statistics. It’s a wonderful way to kill time when someone is talking too much in a meeting.
I try to be the setter on our volleyball team. It takes a detached rationality to help freeze the pond that allows your passion to dance, to think about the game and soak it in–not just sit and cheer. The approach, I believe, is the right combination of statistics and what you should look for. It’s about trends and what leads up to the under four media timeout in a two-possession CAA game. Then, it’s execution.
It’s today’s reason why we have it better. Yes the wins and losses are the most important part of the game, but you understand there’s far more going on than tallying baskets. You know there’s stories and strategy; triumph and tragedy. There’s a beauty to rock fighting that exists between stats and storylines and we keep going back to feel the refreshing wind of CAA basketball.
That’s what we try to set up for you–the experience. Enjoy your weekend.
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This weekend’s theme is “the extra gear.” It hit me last night when a classic CAA rock fight–for 30 minutes there were nine ties and 12 lead changes in the Pugs/Dawgs matchup, and neither team led by more than four points at any juncture–turned into a 59-47 JMU walkaway.
It was ironic that JMU, who has suffered through devastating second half lulls in most every CAA game, stepped on the gas pedal midway through the second half. It turned when Ivan Drago Andrey Semenov became “entagled” with Matt Rum, threw one of his patented elbows–as stealth and lethal as a Sugar Ray Leonard jab–and earned a technical foul. Our Man JMLLL, in street clothes, came off the bench defending Rum and was assessed a technical.
Our friends at the JMU Sports Blog have the best recap:
JMU’s tattooed combo guard/forward had an outstanding game last night. He led all scorers with 15 points and pulled down 8 boards. It was classic Semenov, diving for loose balls, mixing it up with Beasthoven, and pissing off the opposition so much that a player in street clothes got a tech for calling him a punk. Just your typical Andrey Semenov performance. I think the guy might be the most hated player in the CAA, but I love him.
But the gist is that from that critical juncture, JMU found the extra gear. Humpty Hitchens hit back-to-back threes and a 37-34 barnburner was 47-35.
We’ve seen it on many occassions this year. VCU consistently buries opponents in the second half–probably due more to putting their opponents into first gear as opposed to shifting into sixth gear. As we hit this weekend, the finish line for the five-in-10 stretch, keep an eye on who can find that extra gear in the second half.
Remember, that applies globally. Players are dead tired–but we’re into the second half of the season, too. Championships and Friday byes are won with a burst of energy as we move into February.
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Hofstra (1-9) at Northeastern (6-4): In eight non-VCU conference games, the Pride has been within one possession with less than three minutes to play in every single game. Mo Cassara has got to catch a break at some point, right?
This is a battle of old guards–Jon Lee and Joel Smith against Mike Moore and Nat Lester. So let’s say those guys cancel each other out. What’s left?
Northeastern has a very good freshman duo of Quincy Ford and Reggie Spencer–the latter seems to be recovering from hitting his freshman wall two weeks ago and the former is getting better as the season moves along. That duo matches David Imes and, well, we’re not sure. Dwan McMillan played well earlier in the season, and Steven Mejia had a five helper night against Mason.
But the Pride is a little unstable when you get to the second line of defense (and offense). It isn’t that the guy doesn’t exist; rather, it’s just hard to tell who it is going to be. A short bench wears that guy out. This doesn’t even discuss Alwayne Bigby or Kauri Black.
Too many guys playing too close to their apartment.
Northeastern 64, Hofstra 60
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UNCW (4-6) at Towson (0-10): Buzz Peterson was the most reent coach to discuss his team’s need for rest, especially Keith Rendleman. The Hawks also avoided pain when Freddie Jackson’s knee was diagnosed as a sprain. There was fear of a tear. Jackson will almost certainly keep his sweats on, if he dresses at all.
I see similar construction to the Delaware game–the beachgoers are nervous for 30 minutes, but eventually pull away behind a tsunami of Adam Smith and Tanner Milson threes.
The Dubmen 71, Towson 55.
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James Madison (3-7) at George Mason (9-1): Tough to know what to make of the Patriots. And before you people jump on my back, it isn’t a matter of good. Nine and one speaks for itself. It’s a matter how good, which is complicated by the sleepwalking factor. The problem is that I don’t know we wake up Sunday morning knowing anything more than we know right now.
Here’s what I mean: Mason has won its past three games by a grand total of 23 points. HU (55-50), UNCW (67-61), and Towson (72-60). Combined CAA record of those opponents: 5-25. Two of the three were at home, and they needed to score the last seven points of their roadie win. You’d expect an elite team to blastfire someone.
So is it sleepwalking? A good but not great team? You see flashes of greatness, but that’s the question–are they great-coast-great-coast kind of team?
Short of James Madison winning, we will likely type the same words on Monday.
Mason 76, James Madison 58.
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Delaware (5-5) at Drexel (8-2): The Dragons are going to be loaded for bear Hen. Delaware blitzed Drexel 71-60 back in December, in a game that proved to the “enough is enough” moment for Bruiser Flint. The loss was Drexel’s fourth in five games and dropped the preseason favorites to 2-4 on the season. Clearly it was the lowpoint.
Drexel is 14-1 since that day and the steady ascent has them the best team in the CAA in our eyes. No CAA opponent has scored more than 58 points against Drexel since the new year, and Hofstra is the only CAA squad to hold them to less than 60 points. In the eight games since their only loss in the run (at Georgia State on January 2), Drexel is beating teams by an average of 65-49.
One other item: Frantz Massenat is not the player of the year, but he may be the most valuable player.
Delaware, on the other hand, is in a bad spot. The way they lost to Northeastern is galling, for sure. It was a game they felt they could win and probably should’ve won. At the end of the five-in-ten, that’s a blow.
However I noticed that their shot distribution against the Huskies was more like you’d expect. Devon Saddler took 19 shots, and Jamelle Hagins 17. They need that kind of activity from their two best players–especially in this heated rivalry. Kyle Anderson or Jarvis Threatt firing from deep is a quick way to a 20-point loss.
Drexel 66, Delaware 56
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VCU (8-2) at Georgia State (6-4): Oh baby, do I want to see Shaka Smart motivate his troops for this one. I can absolutely see Smart running video with VCUs cacophony of bricks in the first matchup between these two teams. VCU executed and missed. And missed. And missed.
Be yourself will be the message. The shots will fall. The Rams also need to keep playing the inspired defense that has led them to six straight wins–four of the six teams have not reached 50 points. Rob Brandenberg’s confidence booster against Towson looms as well.
The Panthers have gone 5/5 at home: five nonconference wins, five conference wins, and zero losses. What’s more, Ron Hunter sent his team home on Thursday and forbade them to come near the gym until Friday evening practice–the coach admitted the players were tired and could use the time away.
VCU 61, Georgia State 55.
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William & Mary (2-8) at Old Dominion (8-2): I fear for the Tribe here. We mentioned their scattershot offense yesterday, and here’s the problem: playing your fourth game in eight days, you shot 29% against James Madison–including a 3-18 from your two leading scorers. You have one day off and then get Old Dominion’s defense?
The Monarchs aren’t exactly the 1980s Showtime Lakers, but it may not matter. ODU has held three of its last four opponents to less than 50 points. What does that mean? Either William & Mary swishes their way over the ODU zone to the biggest upset of the season, or a rock fight.
ODU 62, William & Mary 52