Warning: this is the Official August 11 Preview of the upcoming CAA basketball season. It is a loooonnng read, but darn good and subject to change by the time you finish this sentence.
A couple notes:
- I tried to chunk it out and provide some interesting tidbits wrapped in key areas of emphasis for the season. I wanted to stay away from “Charles Jenkins is a good basketball player” because you deserve better. Work with me here.
- You get one quote from each coach and one stat gleaned while doing background work for Blue Ribbon. Like it? Go buy it, because there’s 1,500 words on every CAA team, a conference overview, full schedules, and choices for the best backcourts, frontcourts, and All CAA team. It’s worth it.
1st: Old Dominion
What Matters: Personality. Blaine Taylor is always talking about his team being comfortable in their own skin, and having all the oars rowing in the same direction. I’m certain Gary Cooper in Sergeant York, picking off the Germans from behind like he used to do to ducks in his hillbilly town, is in there somewhere. A huge part of ODUs player development strategy is accepting roles. If, for instance, Darius James decides he wants to score 20 ppg, ODU is sunk.
It’s Good If: Trian Illiadis or Josh Hicks can shoot a high percentage of threes. They don’t need to be gunners nor make hundreds of them. However if opponents are forced to guard them, the paint opens up for Frank Hassell, and for slashers.
It’s Not Good If: Hassell decides he’s good enough; Keyon Carter doesn’t graduate from inconsistent role player to bona fide threat, and that includes crashing the glass and providing rebounding help; the Monarchs are inefficient on offense—they can’t afford that.
Look Out For: Kent Bazemore. He’s a suffocating defender and elite athlete. If ODU can open up a defense to give him room to drive and he can shoot just a little bit, Bazemore is first team All CAA material.
One Stat: Frank Hassell was a double figures scorer in 19 of ODUs final 26 games. He scored 30 points and hauled in 17 rebounds in ODUs two NCAA tournament games.
Blaine Taylor, on Kent Bazemore: “He’s kind of like a horse. Sometimes you have to let him run but sometimes you have to keep him in the corral. Some of the better players are going to make mistakes and you have to live with aggressive errors.”
In Summary: As odd as this sounds, even though ODU lost a first team All CAA player in Gerald Lee, I think they can be better than last year. It may not play out to 16-2, but ODU gets the preseason nod and will not play on Friday.
2nd: VCU
What Matters: Sybil. Specifically, Joey Rodriguez’s ability to portray the legendary Sally Field role. VCU is going to need different things from him this season: leadership, shooting, playmaking, defense. It’s going to be different every night and we won’t know until the under 12 media timeout. J-Rod must do everything well, just not on the same night.
It’s Good If: Brad Burgess brings it every night. Burgess put 30 on Drexel and 22 on Towson and had three double-doubles. However he also had one point against Hofstra and two points against Mason and The Pugs.
It’s Not Good If: The Rams play 25 seconds of defense. They are talented enough to beat half the conference playing average defense. The problem: that makes for a nice 11-7 season, and that’s not going to cut it. VCU must grind defensively for the entire shot clock.
Look Out For: Jamie Skeen. You run a play for a post player, only one guy is getting the ball. Are you giving it to Skeen, or first round NBA draft pick Larry Sanders? Note: in VCUs CBI title-clincher over St. Louis, while Sanders sat with foul trouble, Skeen scored 16 points and grabbed six rebounds.
One Stat: Brandon Rozzell shot 48.3% at home, and 29.8% on the road.
Shaka Smart: “It’s Havoc 2.0. We’re going to press more and get after it more, but we’ve got to play better halfcourt defense. That’s a huge point of emphasis.”
In Summary: Appropriately for this rivalry: “see ODU and change Lee to Sanders.” It’s obvious that Sanders lost respect for the college game, and that took a toll. The Rams are in that 2nd-5th spot in my mind, and don’t underestimate the impact of Shaka Smart with a year under his belt, and the VCU players with a year under Smart.
3rd: Mason
What Matters: Boldness. Really, this is all about Cam Long. The kid has got to be that guy, both on and off the court. When Mason was its best Long was a selfish ballhog, and we mean that in a good way. Long must show up, and demand things of his teammates. Luke Hancock taking the frosh to soph jump is important, too, but a distant second.
It’s Good If: Long yells at a teammate during an early season game (then hits a three); Mike Morrison and Ryan Pearson become a consistent Batman and Robin combination on the baseline; Johnny Williams provides a measure of bulk.
It’s Not Good If: Mason has six different leading scorers in its first eight games. Mason is the ultimate in expect the unexpected, and that’s not good; Andre Cornelius starts the season slowly. Jim Larranaga defers to upperclassmen, and the coach will have a decision to make if Sherrod Wright or Bryon Allen are outplaying ACorn.
Look Out For: Wright. He didn’t shoot it well and his assist-to-turnover ratio was horrible (14/34). But that’s typical freshman stuff. I see consistent minutes and three double-figures games down the stretch, when most freshman have hit the wall.
One Stat: Mason played five games against the top three teams (ODU, NU, Pugs). The Patriots were 1-4 in those games, and Cam Long scored 27 total points (5.4ppg), never getting more than seven in any one game. He missed 11 of 12 threes.
Jim Larranaga: “(Freshman) Bryon (Allen) is a powerful guard who can score at the rim and from the perimeter as well as create for his teammates.”
In Summary: The only thing I’m certain of is that Mason will finish somewhere between first and 12th. I have them third based on talent level and coaching acumen, but nothing would surprise me out of this group. Maturity may tell the tale. Vegas builds casinos on people who think they’ve got a team like Mason figured out.
4th: James Madison
What Matters: Hawkeye. (Pierce). AD Jeff Bourne hopefully hired the country’s best sports doc, and they invested some of that football stadium money in protective equipment for the cagers; That Devon Moore mentally is past his knee injury—that kid is a winner who makes his teammates winners and that’s a mental edge.
It’s Good If: Give ‘Em Hell doesn’t play like he’s tiptoeing on thin ice—a 20/10 will do, kind sir; Moore wipes out, it looks ugly, and he bounces right up laughing; that Julius Wells has equal production with fewer shots; Rayshawn Goins looks like a cheap Charles Barkley, circa 1987.
It’s Not Good If: Trevon Flores continues to drift around the court and waste his skills; obviously if Moore favors his hurt knee; if Goins is a cheap Charles Barkley, circa 2010; if the trainer is voted most improved player.
Look Out For: I read good things about Chad Jackson, but I’ll believe it when the kid gets on campus and adjusts to college life; Give ‘Em Hell, who has reportedly been working hard this summer due to some, uh, encouragement from his coach is POY material.
One Stat: For all his scoring prowess, Denzel Bowles is also a deft passer on the block. His 62 assists were 16 more than any other CAA big man.
Matt Brady, on Andrey Semenov: “He played without pain all summer, and by all accounts he’s a handful and might be the best basketball player on the team. We don’t need 30 minutes out of him, but if he can give us 20 great minutes we’re a much better basketball team.”
In Summary: This bunch is everybody’s trendy pick to “make something happen,” whatever that means. I see a team that will pound some opponents, good ones too. They have the mix: point guard, shooter, big man, tough guy. I buy the trend, but we’ll have them settle into fourth for now.
(INTERLUDE)
I have to say spots five through nine are a giant roll of the dice. OK, it’s a Dungeons and Dragons five-sided die, but you get the point. You are not allowed to get rankled because Your Team is eighth instead of sixth. That falls below our Stupidity Mendoza Line around here and we won’t tolerate it.
(Note to newcomers: if you use the word “sucks” in any description of anything, you fall below the line. Carry on.)
Here’s my general opinion and then we’ll get into the nitty gritty: Towson and Delaware are going to be much better than you think. Hofstra and Nor’easter have huge questions. And the Pugs? I have no idea what to do with them. None.
5th: Hofstra
What Matters: Fun. As much as I like Tom Pecora, his teams rarely looked like they were having a good time. They beat the crap out of you and we love Pecora’s term “rock fight” to describe certain games, but Hofstra always looked more like they were cleaning out the attic than making a 20-foot birdie putt. If Mo Cassara can keep them laughing and smiling and loose, you never know where Charles Jenkins can take them.
It’s Good If: the Pride can establish some balance to take the pressure off of Jenkins. Greg Washington needs to become that 14/8 guy he looks like in the layup line; Nat Lester’s thigh heals up and he’s consistently effective; Brad Kelleher is as good as Pecora said.
It’s Not Good If: Fordham transfer Mike Moore starts to sulk. Note the irony of the Fordham part, and know that Moore was a huge scorer, can flat out fill it up. But if things aren’t going the way of the scorer, sometimes that weapon is removed. Proof: VCUs Jay Gavin went from MAAC frosh of the year at Marist to gonzo in a half-season.
Look Out For: Moore. Yeah, I know. But the kid put 28 on Rhode Island, 25 on Richmond, and 20 on Charlotte in a three-game spree. Crooked numbers in the “TP” column always catch our eyes. Jenkins must be smiling at that.
One Stat: Charles Jenkins averaged more than 42 mpg over the Pride’s final six games.
Mo Cassara: “You’re going to see an exciting brand of basketball,” he says. “I hang our hat on using my experience—a Brian Gregory defense, Al Skinner offense. We’ll take a little of both those styles and mix in my own and adapt to the players we have. We’re inheriting a team that’s in place and you build to your strengths.”
In Summary: The Pride gets the five seed based 90% on Jenkins and 10% Washington. The duo will have the Pride close in every game, and there’s nobody better than Jenkins with the ball in his hands. However HU needs that unexpected guy—David Imes, Dwan McMillian—to solidify the seed.
6th: Delaware
What Matters: Rest. Jawan Carter played a ridiculous number of minutes last year, and perhaps you’ve forgotten Brian Johnson did the same for three years before his injury. The Hens have also been thin up front and Monte Ross has had no choice. There are too many two-possession games with three minutes to go in the CAA to have your best players gassed.
It’s Good If: Fonzie Dawson plays up to his sophomore season, not down to his junior season; the frontline four (Brinkley, McCullar, McNeil, Hagins) all improve and one becomes a reliable force; Johnson is the point guard we all remember.
It’s Not Good If: Johnson is a shell of himself; Dawson doesn’t figure it out; McNeil cannot stay on the court; the Hens get off to a slow start and a feeling of “not again” grips the locker room.
Look Out For: Devon Saddler. I cannot find anyone who will say anything mediocre about this kid, much less bad. Plus, he has a college body—weight room and conditioning time isn’t spent catching up, it’s spent getting better. That’s Frosh of the Year material.
One Stat: Jawan Carter had a 26-game stretch where he averaged 39.9 mpg.
Monte Ross: “We’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. We were poised to do that last year but then injuries hit us. This is the year we have to make that jump. This is the year that points everything in the right direction.”
In Summary: Sometimes I think defensive numbers are skewed for losing teams. It isn’t that they cannot play defense. Rather, if you’re on a 5-21 team and given the choice to get into a proper stance and defend or go shoot a three, what do you choose? The Hens will improve on defense and move up the standings.
7th: Towson
What Matters: I don’t know if it’s karma, mojo, voodoo dolls or the ghost of Sam Cassell, but Towson always self-destructs in October/November. Braxton Dupree cannot be Tommy Breaux; RayShawn Polk cannot be Timmy Crossin. They need peace, specifically Jon Pease.
It’s Good If: The Tigers shave 6-8 ppg from what they allow as they were a terrible defensive team; February Troy Franklin appears in November; Brian Morris scores as many points in five or six games than all of last year; Isaiah Philmore doubles his production.
It’s Not Good If: Dupree plays with the spirit that landed him in the Maryland doghouse; if Bob Nwankwo’s production decreases by even five percent. And keep an eye on teamwork in the early season. Lots of individual talent, but they need to play together.
Look Out For: RaShawn Polk. Over the final seven games of the season, Polk led the team in scoring (15.5ppg) and was the only Tigers player to average more than 30 mpg. He stepped on the gas pedal and you didn’t notice.
One Stat: Troy Franklin averaged 13.4 ppg in his final eight games, shooting 12-24 from beyond the arc and 35-39 FT. He torched William & Mary with a 27-point, seven assist, one turnover performance in an upset win in late February.
Pat Kennedy: “Our last phase of this building process is winning, and that’s what this year is all about.”
In Summary: Towson lost three of its top four scorers, and that’s a good thing because the group viewed defense as something to do until they got to shoot again. Coaches always say defense is effort, and perhaps that’s what’s been missing. I think Towson can easily win 8-10 games.
8th: The Pugs
What Matters: Triples. The Pugs were 295-841 (35%) from three last year. Let’s say they only shoot 30%. That’s 252-841, a loss of 43 points. So? Consider the Pugs were 12-4 in games decided by five or fewer points. How many of those 43 points do you think kept that record from being 4-12?
It’s Good If: Tony Shaver gets the freshman to sophomore jump from Matt Rum and Kyle Gaillard. Similarly, Shaver could use more production than “bombs away” from JohnMark Ludwick (though we love his funky-looking shot); that Kendrix Brown establishes himself running the show.
It’s Not Good If: Quinn McDowell doesn’t respond well to being “the guy.” He got a pile of looks due to the attention paid to David Schneider and Danny Sumner; Marcus Kitts reverts back to his roots of being a role player. Shaver will need a post presence to run all that confusing weaving.
Look Out For: Brown. Shaver said Brown was as good as anybody on his team last fall. Brown unfortunately hurt his foot and wasn’t the same player. Offensively he’s a taller Bashir Mason who can also finish at the rim. McDowell should swish a lot of threes when the defense collapses on Brown in the lane.
One Stat: JohnMark Ludwick took 108 shots last year, and 97 of those were threes (39-97, 40.2%).
Tony Shaver, on chemistry: “The whole has to be better than the parts. We work on it and talk about it and we accept nothing less. I’ll tell you this: we won’t win a championship at William & Mary without good chemistry.”
In Summary: I doubt there’s a team in the country that played together better than last year’s Pugs. I think they are a more talented team this year. Brown is better, Kitts is better, that freshman class is very good. They drop because, like a good pot of chili, they need to cook down. Perhaps in two years I pick them second. Perhaps this year they finish top four again. It could happen. But my gut says not this year.
9th: Nor’easter
What Matters: Smarts. Matt Janning, Manny Adako, Nken Ojougboh, and Baptiste Bataille knew what Bill Coen wanted to accomplish and how to do it. Chase Allen has a bunch of talented sophomores who don’t, and who have the added pressure of needing to produce. How quickly they figure it out is paramount.
It’s Good If: Allen averages more than five assists per game, and three are to one player; Alwayne Bigby becomes an offensive contributor, but not at the expense of his defense; Alex Harris is freshman of the year material.
It’s Not Good If: Not one of the non-Allen returnees outpaces their collective 10.7 ppg mark; Allen starts playing for Allen, not Coen; Kauri Black can’t keep himself on the court due to injury or fouls.
Look Out For: Joel Smith. There is nothing in the stats that suggest this, so don’t bother looking. Here’s what’s important: Coen needs a shooter and a scorer, and Smith is the most offensively gifted of sophomore class. The opportunity is Smith’s to lose.
One Stat: Allen averaged 13.6 ppg last season. The other seven returning players combined to average 10.7 ppg.
Bill Coen, on Vinny Lima: “I’m very high on Vinny Lima. He’s been a victim of not getting a full rotation on the court and this is the year he will get that opportunity.”
In Summary: Don’t bet against Bill Coen getting this team to 9-9 or better; he’s one of the best chicken salad makers in the country. However I have to start the Huskies in ninth—other than Allen nobody has proven a thing. You saw glimpses last season, but it’s dangerous to extrapolate full seasons from part time.
10th: Drexel
What Matters: Spirit. You just can’t lose a senior point guard who is also your leading scorer—especially under these circumstances—and expect to rebound easily. It’s easy for a coach to go the “us against the world” route, and I believe that nine times out of 10 that’s a useless, hollow mantra. Drexel is the one in 10.
It’s Good If: Gerald Colds starts swishing threes at Fouchian rates; Derrick Thomas becomes a 12 ppg scorer; the Dragons win tough early season games with seven players—it’s good if my belief that depth is overrated is actually true and not something I say. A little something out of the Darryl McCoy wouldn’t hurt.
It’s Not Good If: Chris Fouch has lingering knee troubles. Flint admitted Fouch favored his knee a little last year; if injuries creep up. Nobody is as exposed to damning injuries as Drexel; Colds cannot shoot. Teams will load up on Fouch and Givens; of course, attitude. If the players get frustrated and begin grousing at each other, it could get ugly.
Look Out For: Thomas. Okay, so he’s a Scott Rodgers clone. The important part about that is that Thomas is a Scott Rodgers senior year clone as a sophomore.
One Stat: Drexel three-point shooting down the stretch in February–Colds (1-14); Thomas (2-16); Fouch (3-18).
Bruiser Flint: “At times we got tired and caved and that’s unusual for my squads. These kids play hard and they’re good kids and they practice hard but mentally the last two years we haven’t finished strong.”
In Summary: More than any other coach, Flint requires his point guard to be the coach on the floor. Drexel will put the ball in the hands of a freshman (Frantz Massenat) or unofficial point guard (Colds). The Dragons were thin before they lost Jamie Harris and Kevin Phillip. The wear-down factor is in play.
11th: The Dub
What Matters: Belief. The Hawks were the most dysfunctional team this side of Mason last year. Buzz Peterson has stepped to the pulpit and is preaching all the right scriptures. The kids need to buy in and see some on-court success.
It’s Good If: Peterson chooses to go four guards plus Keith Rendleman. You are what you are, and UNCW is tiny and thin; Ahmad Grant produces mid-teens; Rendleman develops enough of a post presence to keep opponents honest.
It’s Not Good If: Chad Tomko starts jacking shots as fast as I eat M&Ms; Trevor DeLoach’s end season performance was an aberration; Matt Wilson turns out to be little more than tall.
Look Out For: DeLoach. The kid’s first 21 games: 48 total minutes, 15 total points. Final nine games: 170 total minutes, 67 total points. Put me in, coach.
One Stat: Rendleman and Wilson are only two players on the UNCW roster taller than 6-5, and Wilson didn’t play after January 30.
Buzz Peterson, on Rendleman: “He’s one of the kids that’s oozing with potential. We have to work with him on his skills inside–give him a consistent shot inside that he can count on and be comfortable with, but I think as long as he has confidence he could have a big year for us.”
In Summary: The world changes, and the Teal Nation is not immune. If you could count on anything in the CAA until 2005, it was that UNCW forced you to play your A-game in order to have a chance at winning. It may indeed be changing back to that standard, but it’s at least one year away. Maybe more.
12th: Georgia State
What Matters: Bowling. There are eight new faces on the roster, and two of the four holdovers are transfers. Rod Barnes would do well getting the team into a bowling league to develop some camaraderie. They have to be that rec league team with all the 45-year olds—you don’t know who they are, but they kill you by knowing what to do and where everybody is on the court.
It’s Good If: Jihad Ali pops in the tape of the Mason game last year. Ali hit for 22 points that day but topped 11 points only one other time all year; Marques Johnson just plain produces; James Vincent becomes a load on the block; Devonta White figures it out earlier rather than later.
It’s Not Good If: Johnson is looking over his shoulder at White; Dante Curry continues to play passive; the two jucos (Buckner and McGee) don’t pan out.
Look Out For: Johnson. I got the feeling talking to Barnes that Johnson’s problem was deferring to the older players and they weren’t exactly stellar role models. With White on his back and the freedom to run “his team,” Johnson may quietly be a top 4 point guard.
Stat: The Panthers graduated their top five scorers and rebounders, including third team All CAA player Joe Dukes. They return a combined total of 15.5 ppg and 8.9 rpg
Rod Barnes: “We’re a different team, so different, and hopefully people think we can’t score. We feel like we’ve got presence inside and I’m not worried about scoring. We’re a more talented team overall, and we have more depth, so we can play different and play at a faster pace.”
In Summary: The Panthers are in the cellar because of simple numbers. Where else would you put a 5-13 team whose top returning scorer lit up the scoreboard for five points per game last year? (Ali is also their leading returning rebounder at 2.8 rpg.) I do know Rod Barnes likes this team, which may say more about last year’s team than this one. Georgia State may get to a single digit seed, but I have to see it.


