First the recap: Old Dominion and Georgia State rolled to victories over mismatched opponents last night, as expected. The best thing to come out of these scrimmages masquerading as games is that nobody was injured.

For the die hards here’s the ODU boxscore, and here’s the Georgia State boxscore.

Now, Hofstra looked pretty darn good against Connecticut, holding a nine point lead midway through the second half. The Huskies, though, recovered to win 76-67. Beach provides your recap, with thought-provoking analysis. Now the boxscore.

***

Here’s the thing. You’re about to see a chart I crafted before the tip off of the Hofstra game. The intention was to post it yesterday evening, but life is life. It’s about the importance of guard play. Duh.

Anyway, here goes:

So we’re a guards league (Messrs. Sanders and Lee notwithstanding). That’s where we hang our hats, and that’s how mid majors beat major conference foes. We get it. However in the aftermath of Northeastern’s loss to Siena, a game in which Chase Allen amazingly did not record an assist, the thought struck me that there must be a statistical correlation somewhere.

Now, I have no idea if this holds up, but it is at least interesting. Here’s the stipulation: because guards dominate CAA squads, they are taking the majority of the shots and making the most impactful difference. “Shoot a high percentage” is the whelp of upset seekers.

This includes the foul line. So this chart is based on guards shooting well, which–all overanalysis and odd stats aside–is really what it’s all about, right? Your best players putting the ball in the basket. A lot.

I used the five most impactful games–the four games against BCS teams and the Siena/NU game. (Side note: it’s a pretty good cross-section of the CAA teams, too. Luck.)

Best performance had the best shooting guards: Only W&M (38.8%) shot more than 31%. The Tribe also had the highest percentage of threes: 34.8%.

The free throw line continues to be the most discussed and truly relevant stat. If you get aggressive and attack with big players, as opposed to guards firing away, you get to the foul line more often. Well duh.

But check this: Two BCS teams made 26 in a single game, and CAA teams made 29 combined in all five games. The total difference is astounding: 29-53 against 89-135. The old Bobby Knight goal of making as many free throws as the other team attempts is blown out of the water.

Morning addition: the Hofstra/UConn numbers add to the story. Hofstra guards were 19-56 (33.9%) overall and 7-21 (33%) from three. Decent, and the Pride only lost by nine. The free throws: 10-12 for the Pride, and 30-36 from UConn.

Keeping track of free throws: that’s 39-55 (71%) for the CAA; and 119-171 (70%) for others.

Bethune-Cookman and Carver Bible makes everyone feel good, but in all the analysis, there’s the hammer stat: 0-6.