Yesterday we mentioned in passing that you never really know what’s going to happen. You didn’t know that William & Mary would beat Richmond, that ODU would blitz Longwood, and that Richmond would beat the two teams last weekend that pummeled ODU.

Do the math on that tangled web and you will come to the same conclusion: those are precisely the reasons that ODU will smoke Richmond and William & Mary will lose to Longwood tonight.

Or not.

(Cut me some slack. We’re about 26 for our last 30 in “days raining” and I’ve had enough…)

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The reason I say tonight is pivotal is this: the conference has an opportunity to make up some ground in its lone area of weakness this year: toss up games.

There are three games that the CAA must win. There is a legit chance for an upset. And there are three very winnable (two would be impressive) opportunities for toss up wins.

Look at it this way: in March, you could be saying tonight was that night.

Let’s set aside JMU beating Norfolk State, William & Mary downing Longwood, and Towson taking down UMBC. Those are three games you have to win, and for the first time this season, I think, they all will.

We’ll even set aside Mason beating GW. That will happen, too, and rather easily. The whole Ryan Pearson/Andre Cornelius suspension plays right into Larranaga’s hands. He needed something to get his team’s attention–young teams always need that–and the kids obliged by stealing a pillow from their New Orleans hotel room. The Patriots are far more focused and Larranaga is thankful his focus-getting moment wasn’t due to a 35-point thrashing.

Side note: this whole Battle for the Orange Line or whatever they’re calling it could be the most contrived, most ridiculous “rivalry” angle I’ve ever seen. It’s hysterically bad.

Anyway, let’s get to the meat:

Drexel at Villanova: This one is screaming upset opportunity. Villanova hasn’t lost, is third ranked, and news surrounds an injured star player. Plus, we’re in the schedule dead zone–between the holiday and exams–when coaches beg their players to give effort. (This facet has never been an issue with a Drexel team.) For whatever reason, Drexel always plays to the level of its opponent. And the Dragons can physically match up, which becomes important on the backboards.

I’m not calling an upset. Villanova is the third ranked team in the country and undefeated for a reason. What I’m saying is that tea leaves are favorable.

Rhode Island at VCU: The Southern Rams turned the ball over something like 30 times last year and lost. Not happening. Rhode Island is good and will perform well in the A-howevermanyteams. This is classic toss up game that will go the way of the home team, and I’m thinking more easily than you think.

Old Dominion at Richmond: This is where we’ll be tonight, checking out the Monarchs in person for the first time. The 2006 matchup between these two teams was classic. ODU fell behind 17-0 and 25-3 (that is not a mistype) and clawed all the way back to force overtime. They even took a four point overtime lead, but a bad Isaiah Hunter technical foul (woofing) erased the lead and Richmond prevailed.

I know at least one person that will laugh when he reads this: ODU could use a little Isaiah Hunter.

This will be a one possession game late. Enjoy it.