Programming note: previewing the weekend is coming early afternoon. ODU and Mason chatter included.

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If something concrete regarding realignment, or whatever you want to call it, hadn’t been brewing in the CAA, it is now. It must be.

The decision of Hofstra to drop its football program certainly took everyone off guard, if only for its swiftness. Oh, people knew of the ongoing study at the university, where finances in all departments were being evaluated. And they knew football would certainly come under intense scrutiny. You don’t just spend nearly $5MM these days without somebody asking a few questions. But the hammer fell, and quickly.

Beach with a phenomenal job contacting important figures from Hofstra football past.

The Commish chats with the media (and two news links from the Hofstra announcement).

Spirited reaction over at CAA Zone.

(As mentioned head over to Defiantly Dutch or CAA Zone for the Hofstra-specific, newsy stuff. They will handle that much better.)

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So what does that mean moving forward for the CAA?

This is the ultimate follow the money scenario, and the most salient point is that basketball is the CAAs biggest asset. Whatever occurs will protect that asset. CAA Football is the best in the land and garners national attention, but on the balance sheet it is a zero sum game for the conference.

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but it’s going to be a very interesting six months. We have a thrilling basketball season on tap–the “top” teams have big holes and the “bottom” teams are playing the best basketball right now–it will be wide open all of January and February. All of it will carry the undertones of realignment, addition, and subtraction.

I spent a good deal of time last night thinking through it all, and here are the three basic scenarios everything boils down to in my mind. Everything spawns from:

Most Plausible: Nothing

For football purposes, the conference makes due with funky scheduling until ODU comes into the fold, then Georgia State. Presto, back to 12 teams. Yeager said yesterday next football season will have no divisions and everyone plays essentially a round-robin (10 teams, nine opponents, eight conference games is one game short).

Now, nobody believes that nothing is actually going to happen. Something is coming, but here’s why I still rank “nothing” as the most plausible scenario.

We still have the omnipresent red herring excuse, the one I hate: “we’re waiting for the inevitable Big East breakup and see what shakes out of that.” Or more hysterically, the ACC television contract impact. This drives me crazy because it is a convenient excuse and honestly irrelevant, like the stock market is irrelevant to a fish. But here, for this situation, it is helpful.

Remember that football is run, from the conference perspective, as a zero sum game. Get close to break even, either way, and reap the benefits of branding and cohesion. There is nothing to lose by adding nobody. Pretend it’s this year, only with two fewer teams.

In the grand scheme, Tom Yeager probably has 15 scenarios to choose from, and 10 will work. That crummy Big East excuse allows other things to occurto help shape the landscape. The longer Yeager waits, the more dominoes fall and the more evident the right decision becomes. Of course, this also allows the greater the chance of picking one of the 10 and the greater the chance he picks the best one of the 10.

The worst thing that happens with wait-and-see is nothing, and you are whole in three years when Georgia State is fully a member.

What prevents me from endorsing the nothing theory: Yeager isn’t a stand around and do nothing guy. I’d bet your mortgage that he is looking at scenarios as you read these words. This is the essence of “you never know what will happen.” Put another way–stop thinking of this as a football decision. If Yeager can use football as a means to strengthen basketball and the rest of the conference, you bet your bippy he will.

Most Obvious But Confusing: The Fantasy Sports Scenario

Pick a team, pick a conference. Create your scenario. These are your schools, but not really. It’s the discussion that lights up message boards, sports talk radio, and my email.

A giant trade with the A10: Richmond, Charlotte, and Fordham for Northeastern, Hofstra, and Drexel? Hofstra goes and Charlotte comes in? UMass?

Everyone has their angle and you can make any scenario appear to work or make sense. We’ll hear all of these in the coming weeks, and I’ll give you one guideline: following the money dictates that any decision is going to be driven by basketball. An example I’d like to quash right now: I can make the easy argument that Fordham makes a ton of sense on a lot of levels, except that its a step down basketball-wise. That is a killer fact.

And play both sides of basketball-as-an-asset: Northeastern may not be happy in the CAA, but where else are they going to go? Other than the A10, any conference move that makes sense is a step down.

Unlikely Dreamer: 1A Football

We really need to separate hope from fact here. It’s a nice thought, and I can make a lot of great cases about Delaware and JMU football. I can even go the route of merging with another conference.

But let’s get serious: Richmond is spending $10 million for an on-campus stadium, set to open next year, that does not meet FCS guidelines for attendance (15K). Same for William & Mary. UMass? Nova? Come on.

Schools like East Carolina and Rice and Fresno State are all operating in the black hole of collegiate athletics–not BCS and BCS revenue, but with all the expenses and expectations. Who in their right mind would aspire to that?

One thing that keeps nibbling at my skull, though: I find it difficult to believe ODU started a football program to play 1AA. Who could possibly make a legit argument to spend $40 million to get into a business that is a money loser?