They all matter, they really do. These games, I mean. If they didn’t matter we wouldn’t have upsets or tiebreakers, no Friday games at the CAA tournament, and the second half of the season the top teams would play 14 games and the bottom teams five. Part of the beauty of college basketball is knowing there are nights like January 13, when the supposed detritus makes life difficult for favorites, wooing fans from both teams for different reasons.

But you know as well as I do that some games matter more than others. We get Exhibit A in tonight’s five-game slate. (Ga State at ODU has moved to Thursday to accommodate those pesky teevee people.)

So while I like a few things, outlined below, we’re going to focus on the biggest game in the conference since the last biggest game: Drexel at Nor’easter (outlined farther below).

But first, in keeping with tradition, I like some things.

I like a struggling Hofstra team to win at home over UNCW–struggling teams at the bottom of the standings ALWAYS win at home, don’t they? Good Nat will show his form, and Chad Tomko isn’t 100%.

I like VCU to drill Towson in a game that will be over before we learn who won the opening tip. An angry VCU team, playing at home? You betting against that? Plus, Towson survived 37 minutes with Mason based on emotion. The second game is always worse.

I like Delaware to hang with Mason for longer than DeeCee likes. That’s a plucky bunch Monte’s got, and Mason is home after three road wins. These kids read the standings. I wouldn’t term it letdown as much as exhale and lose focus. But Mason pulls away late.

I like The Pugs, too. JMU is fairly easy to guard, and prone to defensive lapses. William & Mary is not the team you want to play with those as your deficiencies. This will be a solid win for Shaverthatmustache.

***

Now, that brings us to the night’s biggie. Rock fight, anybody?

This is a matchup of two of the top three defensive teams in the CAA. Nor’easter is tops with .87 points allowed per possession and Drexel is third at .90. The two teams are tied for the lead in two-point field goal percentage defense at 43.1%. Both teams stand in front of you and make you work for your shot. I think we’ll see multiple single-digit shot clocks.

It’s also a battle of the CAAs two best versions of “the sum is greater than the parts.”

Not one player on Brusier Flint’s team strikes immediate fear throughout your innards in the way you feel about Jenkins, Sanders, Long, Lee, etc. You don’t even know if Leon Spencer is left handed or right handed. But you know they get in your face, and they’ve won six conference games, and they are the only CAA team to beat Nor’easter. Really, for all the tempo-free stats we love, it comes down to W and L. Drexel excels at producing the W.

Nor’easter, as mentioned, is rather like the 2005-06 UNCW team. The Huskies are so bland about their business (with no help from their King Cliche Coach) you have no idea what happened; you just have a 64-54 loss on the books. NU operates like a cold–a little itching and scratching in the back of your throat that feels funny, and the next thing you know you’re sneezing your fool head off, tearing into the cabinets to see if you have some NyQuil left.

In fact, I have it on good word that Nor’easter is considering changing its school colors from red and black to beige and light beige.

Here’s why I’m picking NU tonight: first, they are at home, and there is an energy in Mathews they’ve never seen for hoops.

Second, every random fan is going to point out that Matt Janning needs to be stopped. That isn’t really the case.

Janning has made 50% of his FG attempts just once during the 11-game winning streak (7-11 against JMU on 1/2). He’s shot better than 50% just four times all season, and those four aren’t net-rippers–three 6-11 games and the 7-11 JMU game.

He made five or more field goals eight times in the 2-7 start and six times in the 11-0 run. Translation: the Huskies are getting it done as a team.

That’s how efficient NU is playing on offense. The guy that shoots the most is shooting the worst, and they still have hit better than 50% in four of its past five games. In games featuring staunch defense, it’s usually a piece of offense that wins it. I can see Janning getting hot and winning this one.

NU 62, Drexel 58.