Prep work always yields nuggets. The more prep, the better the nuggets. (In fact, we stumbled onto one yesterday that will be blown out to post later this week.)

Anyway, here’s some tidbits for you to track and put on your calendar. Order the cake now to beat the rush:

• Tony Shaver is five wins from 450 in his career, and 13 wins from 100 at William & Mary.
• Pat Kennedy is 16 wins away from 500 for his career.
• Bruiser Flint’s first victory gives him 150 at Drexel, and he is 15 wins away from 250 career victories.
• Blaine Taylor is 12 wins away from 200 at ODU.

Also, a couple of links:

Brian Mull reports that Dom Lacy will not be returning to UNCW. Of note: UNCW now has two players taller than 6-5 on its roster (Matt Wilson, Keith Rendleman).

Here’s a good piece from Boston.com writer Julian Benbow on Matt Janning’s push to make an impact and a future in the NBA.

Today’s unrelated to hoops tip: next July 4, head to Colonial Downs in Williamsburg for horse racing and fireworks. It’s everything you get from the outdoors park experience, plus a 10-race card. You never know who you will run into. Easy in, easy out. Great family atmosphere–surprisingly Disney considering why the track was built.

We’ll be quick today–not everybody has the day off, but I know you do.

So you probably have an inkling this offseason hasn’t exactly been, uh, tame for the CAA coaching ranks. Five assistants have moved on, and we have two completely new staffs. (Maybe two-and-one-half, depending on how you tally Tim Welsh.)

This guy Mike Hueguenin from Rivals/Yahoo has his list of 10 coaches on the hot seat. The CAA occupies two of the spots–Pat Kennedy (#3) and Monte Ross (#5).

All the coaches are either on planes or getting on planes today to recruit. What’s it going to take for Ross and/or Kennedy to be doing this July 5, 2011?

My opinion, contracts and money and side-notes aside:

Towson needs to hit .500 in conference. Hueguenin notes that Kennedy hasn’t reached .500 at Towson and we’re going on seven years. Get a little closer: when you tack on two years at Montana and his final two at DePaul, it has been 10 years (going on 11) since Kennedy has presided over a .500 team.

Delaware needs to show marked improvement. How that displays in the numbers cannot be determined until the season plays itself out. Ross took over a wretched program and stabilized it. The Hens had one flagging year (13-19 two seasons ago) and you can chalk up last year as one of those years, when Ross’s luck requires a dose of Cervantes: “A stout heart breaks bad luck.”

This year could be six, eight, or nine wins in conference. Brian Johnson is back, the young kids have last year under their belts, and Jawan Carter can score with anybody.

I believe Pat Kennedy has a number, and that number is 10. Monte Ross doesn’t have a number; rather, a word: more.

Having lunch with smart people always pays dividends. Its biggest benefit is usually the unexpected tidbit that sticks with you the rest of the day. That happened again yesterday for CAAHoops and I highly recommend you make “lunch with smart people” a to-do.

Smart Guy throws out an internal debate to chew: what is the best way for the CAA season to play out? We bandied three scenarios:

1. Butler Scenario: one team dominates the league, and national headlines, all season. The result is one team winning NCAA games, but the rest of the college basketball world struggles to name two other teams in your conference.
2. Pete Rozelle Scenario: The 2009-10 CAA season was reminiscent of the old NFC Central days. Every night was a full scale tussle and you never really knew who would win. It was great night in and night out, but nationally you were a one-bid league. Everybody appreciated the wars and feared your champion, but really there wasn’t the oomph. You may or may not win an NCAA game but show well.
3. Piano Legs Scenario: The last two seasons the CAA gained an at large bid, the conference took on a shape that was very conducive to earning that coveted spot–a pack of teams separated themselves at the top, the middle was the middle, and the bottom of the league was wretched. That gave everyone the opportunity to talk about more than one team and the league being good. Detractors lamented the lack of depth. You may or may not win an NCAA game, but two teams show well (and you get to talk about a third being shafted).

What do you think it is?

Give me a piano any day (preferably with Billie Holliday belting out a tune, but I digress…) Here’s my case:

The number one goal on my list, and number two is a distant second, is the national respect of a second bid. The money matters, and the opportunity for two good teams to win a game or more exists.

That eliminates the Butler scenario.

Parity is all well and good but boring to the rest of the world. We’re going to enjoy CAA basketball no matter what. If we want teevee games, and NCAA tournament bids, and flowery columns from Andy Katz and Jeff Goodman and Gary Parrish, then the conference has to win games on a national level. We know we have it better–everybody needs to see it. (Plus, the money matters.)

That eliminates the Pete Rozelle Scenario.

So what does this top heavy, Piano Leg Scenario look like? What has to happen?

First, I get to say it: the conference benefits from having four terrible teams. They don’t impact the conference RPI as much as you think. The conference RPI was 8 in 2005-06, mostly because of Mason and ODU’s postseason runs. (I think the CAA was ranked #10 going into the postseason.)

Otherwise, the conference RPI has been consistent whether strong at the top/weak at the bottom or balanced top/bottom.

• 2006-07 – 13
• 2007-08 – 13
• 2008-09 – 12
• 2009-10 – 13
• In fact, other than 2005-06 the highest the conference RPI since 1991-92 has been 12. In six of the last 13 years the CAA has been ranked #13.

So I looked at 2005-06 and 2006-07, the last two seasons with at large bids:

2005-06

Four really good teams: UNCW, Hofstra, Mason, and ODU were a combined 57-15 in conference. Those teams were 16-17 vs. top 50 RPI.

Four middle teams: VCU, Drexel, Towson, and Northeastern were combined 39-33 in conference. Those teams were a combined 26-20 nonconference and 3-23 vs. top 50 RPI.

Four really bad teams: JMU, GSU, W&M, and Delaware were a combined 12-60 in conference. However they were a combined 17-26 in nonconference play.

2006-07

Four really good teams: VCU, ODU, Drexel, and Hofstra were a combined 58-14 in conference. These teams were 14-15 vs. top 50 RPI.

Four middle teams: Mason, W&M, Towson, and Northeastern were a combined 34-38 in conference. These teams were a combined 27-28 noncon and 2-30 vs. top 50 RPI.

Four really bad teams: JMU, GSU, W&M, and Delaware were a combined 16-56 in conference. They were 14-35 in noncon action.

The implication?

The top teams have to be good in November and get better. They must get those signature wins in nonconference and dominate the league. I’m talking the champion is 16-2 and the next three have at least 14 wins.

The middle teams have to remain as close to themselves as possible. They need to beat everybody worse than they are, but not defeat the teams better than them. It’s nice to pick up a top 50 win or three, but the numbers show it isn’t necessary.

The bottom teams have to be decent in November and get worse. Odd thought, I know. They need to hold steady in the nonconference season and get pummeled in January and February. Those four teams are 2-16, 3-15, 4-14, and none of the wins are over a team with a record better than 8-10.

***

This all came about because I’m seeing some clear dividing lines for this upcoming season. We’ll deal with that later.

It’s becoming a summer trend for me to link out to others in our CAA community instead of furiously writing as much as possible. That’s how it should be. It isn’t possible for me to bring you the level of detail you want/need from all 12 CAA schools, plus the conference’s inner-workings, plus the college basketball landscape that impacts us.

That’s a good thing. I absolutely believe it’s my job to organize and be more of a curator. That’s the future: blend original content with links to others who have access and specificity. Package for the group. It’s removing me or any organization (like, say, a newspaper) from the center of the universe and concentrating on what matters–connecting relevant information with those who want it.

Others can do a better job with other stuff but you don’t need to click to 45 websites.

We have a strong and passionate following, and the folks that bring you the news are smart. I’d put official beatnicks Brian Mull and Tim Pearrell up against anyone, Jerry Beach has a wonderful feel for interspersing humor with reportage, and The Zone is a great place if you have patience.

RamNation, Monarch Nation, and DieHard Dogs are bookmarked, and The Mason Bench is a great new addition. I don’t do recruiting, hate it, but the Recruit Recon guys are outstanding. Then there’s my stuff, which will again flow freely as Blue Ribbon chatter escalates.

I always have The Brain Trust keeping me honest.

So anyway, that’s your July 1 warning of our direction: we share. You read something interesting or smart, let me know. My job is to put it together, parse for the quality nuggets, and serve it up.

Here’s what I’ve found in the past week or so:

Mull noted that Buzz Peterson picked up a walk-on guard by the name of Keegan Pace.

I love that Pace has his own website, even though “Keegan Pace” is destined to be an investment banker or true crime fiction writer. Side note: the only other CAA player I’m aware of that has his own website is Northeastern’s Chase Allen.

***

Mark Selig is a whippersnapper who covers JMU for the Harrisonburg paper. You may not know this (nor Selig’s talent) because much of Selig’s work is hidden behind a paywall–possibly the dumbest decision in the history of dumb newspaper decisions.

Pay to read news about Harrisonburg? Hilarious.

Anyway, Selig notes that Louis Rowe has been hired to replace Carlin Hartman on Matt Brady’s staff. (With all the head coaching moves this spring, I feel like we’ve had a ton of assistant coaches moving around.)

Also, Give ‘Em Hell participated in the Amare Stoudamire big man camp and received an invite to the Lebron James skills camp. Most impressive is that Fox Sports college hoops head Jeff Goodman has Bowles as the first pick in the second round on next year’s NBA Draft.

Reminds me of this link, from David Teel.

***

Jerry Beach covers the ground everybody has been wondering about this summer: how has Charles Jenkins taken to the chaos that defined Hofstra’s spring? Beach recently sat down with Jenkins, Greg Washington, Nat Lester, and Mo Cassara. More solid work from DD.

***

CAA athletics directors are getting all webby on us.

UNCW AD Kelly Mehrtens wrote a letter to the Seahawk Family, and new ODU bossman Wood Selig does same. Today is Selig’s first official day on the job.

Thanks to very good but vanishing VCU SID Scott Day, we have a chest-bumping stat for you this morning: With Larry Sanders being selected 15th in last night’s NBA draft, VCU becomes the fourth non-BCS school (of 275) ever to have a first round draft pick in consecutive years.

The others: Memphis, Utah, UNLV.

(Hilarious but pointless side note: because I care as much about the NBA as I do the color of Post-It note paper, I flipped on the teevee and saw exactly one pick last night–Sanders.)

***

Thanks to erstwhile Towson scribe Mat Schleissel, we found a Baltimore Sun Q/A with Pat Kennedy about his Towson recruiting class. These are the things that have me buying into Towson every summer.

***

Thanks to UNCW beat writer Brian Mull we learned John Fields visited Xavier last week, and Rutgers yesterday. I know where my bets are placed.

High Volume Commentor Shawn: I don’t see the big deal. Fields has his degree, and UNCW has a new coach. Take the emotion and history out of it, and the situation is no different than a freshman coming in–the rules may be unfair, but you have the right to leave if you don’t like the situation or coach.

I’m not saying Fields and Buzz Peterson didn’t get along. I know nothing of that dynamic. What I’m saying is this: if you have your degree and you are given the choice of playing for UNCW in a (uh) rebuilding season–or play for Xavier/Rutgers–is it so hard to believe you’d opt out?

***

Ed Miller gives us an ODU coaching update. The Monarchs are replacing John Richardson as their third assistant.

This isn’t exactly groundbreaking and text-worthy news. It’s just funny to me because Blaine Taylor’s comments are comical.

Other coaching news, outside of entire new staffs at UNCW and Hofstra: Mike Pegues replaces Stephen Stewart as assistant at Delaware; Raheem Waller replaces Willaim Small as assistant at Ga State; Matt Collier replaces Tony Chiles as an assistant at Drexel.

***

I haven’t forgotten “the guy that works his tail off” series. In fact, most are chosen and mostly written. However I want to get some coaches commentary so I’m holding back.

The Pugs are likely next up, UNCW is ready, and ODU needs only Blaine Taylor to tell me if I’m looney.

I imagine the 2010-11 season kicked off today, which is interesting because the 2009-10 season hasn’t yet ended.

What I mean is that the first two interviews for next season’s Blue Ribbon Yearbook were conducted today–VCUs Shaka Smart and UNCWs Buzz Peterson. It kinda gets me re-fired up to start into the background work. (For the unwashed, Blue Ribbon is by far the most comprehensive preseason guide. You get 1,500 words on every CAA team.)

A few quick hitters, and I’ll do likewise when I catch up with everyone. Of note: you’ll get a handful of interesting notes and quotes, but you must wait until the guide comes out (and buy it!) to get the whole enchilada.

Peterson, on Keith Rendleman:

“He’s one of the kids that’s oozing with potential. We have to work with him on his skills inside–give him a consistent shot inside that he can count on and be comfortable with, but I think as long as he has confidence he could have a big year for us.”

Peterson, on Trevor Deloach:

“We need him to be more of an offensive producer for us. He can be a warrior on the boards. That three spot is kind of a bandit—he’s the guy that has to give us the oomph at the three spot. I always say your position is who you can guard. That kid can guard a two, three, or four.”

Peterson, on freshman Tanner Milson:

“I love coaches kids and his dad is one of the most successful coaches in Texas. His desire to want to be something is incredible. I’m looking forward to the days coaching him.

Smart, on his first season:

“I like that we got better as a group, and most of our players got better individually. If you go strictly by numbers, we had a terrific year. Every CAA game we won was by double digits, and every loss except Northeastern was by three points, five points, they were all close. We were right there.”

Smart, on Brad Burgess:

“He’s the number one guy that can benefit from consistency. He has a good understanding and his body is better–he’s actually grown to 6-6 in shoes. Even (Brad) admits he needs to be more assertive and get his shots, or at least opportunities.”

Smart, on Ed Nixon:

“He was our best player in ball screen situations. We want him to work on handling the ball so he can have it in his hands (more often).”

The bookends to the CAA basketball season are being impacted in middle June. An important October event, and an important March event, were both in yesterday’s news.

Mlodinow was right–randomness rules our lives.

First, there was this WaPo report that said the DeeCee ESPNZone is being closed.

(My personal opinion: good riddance. The place was an arcade with $14 chicken fingers. Just terrible.)

However it was also an ideal home for the conference’s media day every October. It was spacious, offered different rooms for interviews and such, and the location cannot be topped. Logistics were smooth, and that includes getting in and out of DeeCee.

What’s next? I’ll try to ferret it out at lunch today.

And then, I was directed to this beauty about a study to determine what to do with the Richmond Coliseum.

Here’s an update.

Hilarious to me: didn’t we just do this six months ago?

Finally on this point, I stumbled into this very interesting website as I was researching information.

It will take me approximately three days to put all these links into one PowerPoint presentation. I’ll take my check for $150,000 now. (Don’t we have some floodwall or Civil War argument to get moving?)

***

Brian Mull drags himself off the golf course long enough to file this report about CAA APR ratings.

WaPo gave me the best outline of APR:

The two key components to a team’s APR score are the eligibility and retention of each scholarship student-athlete. Teams calculate their APR scores each academic year, with 925 — out of 1,000 — set as the benchmark for possible penalties. Each APR score is based on a team’s showing over the past four years.

Delaware and Georgia State are below the line and I assume receive a warning. (We’ll find out.)

More interesting to me than some academic ranking, curiously published in the middle of realignment hilarity is this:

According to Dave Berst, NCAA vice president of Division I governance, 40 percent of men’s basketball players are no longer at the program with which they originally signed after two years for a variety of reasons, including transfers and departure into the professional ranks.

Look at it this way–on  15-man roster, that’s six players. Eye-popping, to say the least.

As for realignment, doesn’t it feel a little like NCAA Program Fantasy Football?

***

The cool kids up at Northeastern are joining the fray, and good for them. The student radio station will begin a weekly CAA Radio Show this fall–in all seriousness, we need to support things like this. Rising tide lifts all boats and such.

They’ve already added themselves to the Facebook Revolution. Combined with the good work the kids at the Hofstra student radio station are doing, we are starting to churn out some whippersnappers who hopefully don’t turn their backs on our world when the Big Geographical Mess Conference calls.

Been a long time since we rapped at ya’, and we return with a heavy dose of Drexel. There is some good news, tough news, travel plans, and the kickoff of a summer feature.

The good news? Thanks to Bob Jordan, we learned that Bruiser Flint has graduated every player that’s matriculated through the Drexel program since Flint arrived in 2001. In a time when stories surround magical GPAs and “B”illions of dollars thanks to realignment, we need statistics like this repeated and acknowledged.

A quick headcount (unofficial, because I don’t have the patience nor time to pour through the Drexel media guide for every senior since 2001, and maybe an enterprising Drexel fan can help): 32 players, 32 degrees since 2001.

You should applaud this.

The tough news? CAA freshman of the year Chris Fouch underwent surgery on his knee yesterday. Too many doctors and too many opinions and too few comments, but the scare is a torn meniscus, and the gist is that it appears to be six weeks before Fouch is back on the court. This is Fouch’s second major surgery in three years.

Travelocity? Drexel will be taking one of those overseas trips this summer. Details are coming and we’ll get them, and we’ll probably log each CAA team’s trip, but the Dragons are outta’ here to a far flung location. Caribbean?

No, Drexel will be headed to Turkey.

The feature kickoff? We’re going to list one player from every CAA team who can make a huge difference this year if he does two things: listens to his coach on skill development, and works his tail off in the weight room and on the pavement to get into basketball shape.

Now, the litmus isn’t “NCAA tournament” or “20 wins.” The litmus is this: the player is the guy who if he does his work makes the difference in 11-7 and playing on Friday and a 13-5 third place finish. Oh, you bet it’s that slim, which means “Charles Jenkins working on his jumper” doesn’t count.

And I’ll take nominations for Your Team.

First up, since Bruiser returned my phone call: Drexel and their 6-6, 225-pound swingman Kevin Phillip.

Here’s the thing about Phillip. With Leon Spencer, Kenny Tribbett, and Evan Neisler graduating, the Dragons have a significant hole to fill on the baseline. We’re not saying Phillip needs to be Frank Elegar or Robert “He Walked” Battle. If Phillip can be Randy Oveneke–8 points, 6 rebounds, determined play on both ends of the floor and knowing your role–Drexel is a different team.

Jamie Harris, Chris Fouch, and Gerald Colds are going to handle the ball and hoist the majority of the shots. In Flint’s offense, they will run off approximately 4,583 screens on each possession. Somebody has to set those screens and get to the offensive glass. If a defense has no fear of the big man, they will go over top every ball screen and dare Fouch and Harris to drive.

Bruiser agrees:

“You got the right one, that’s for sure, and for him it’s about the mental part,” says Flint. “With him it’s his focus and what he needs to do. He has the ability and he’s shown what he can do, but he’s got to get into shape. He made huge steps from his freshman to his sophomore year—and that shows you how bad he was as a freshman—but the thing is, can he make the next step? Can he really help you, or only show glimpses?

“The kid is one of the worst conditioned kids I’ve ever coached, and I tell him that all the time. If he can get into shape he can make a huge difference. Physically he’s as strong a kid as we’ve ever had, athletically he’s pretty good, and he’s got some toughness and I like that, but he’s not always there, you know?”

Who’s your Kevin Phillip?

***

Assistants Coming and Going

Since we last spoke, Buzz Peterson hired Kevin Norris from Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Flint added Matt Collier to his staff. Collier comes to Drexel after serving five seasons as an assistant coach at Howard University and replaces Tony Chiles, who went to St. John’s.

Rod Barnes hired Raheem Waller at Gerogia State to replace William Small (gone to UTEP).

Finally, JMU assistant Carlin Hartman left Harrisonburg to go to Columbia (the school, not the country)

***

The athletics directors are finishing up their portion of the CAA Annual meetings. If anything new or interesting falls out of Hilton Head, we’ll bring it to you.

Room temperatures and lunch menus don’t count.

We’ve long said some of our best ideas here are stolen, and adapted to our CAA World. Happened again yesterday, courtesy of our friends over at College Chalktalk.

The basic premise of the article is that the author took a look at home/road records from last year and applied them to the upcoming year. The goal: to see who may have a tough row to hoe next season.

It’s a little different for the CAA. We know who plays whom, based on a six-year system of rotating four single games plus two home/homes with five permanent partners.

These numbers cannot be taken in a vacuum. Obviously the teams at the bottom will have the apparent “tougher” record, because they lost the games to the top teams last year and that skews the purity of the number.

Plus, we need to factor in the prevailing beliefs of how next year will play out. Northeastern lost three starters and about 58 seniors–three shy of Georgia State. Hofstra had the entire CAA All Freshman team transfer out. ODU lost Gerald Lee and VCU lost Larry Sanders.

All of these things need to be taken into account, and it’s still May. Nothing is concrete, but this is a good starting point for us to discuss next year. The CAA Mantra is “win them at home and split on the road and you don’t play Friday.” We’ll leave you to figure out Your Team’s specific degree of difficulty in getting there.

Here’s the explanation: the first number is the combined 2009-10 home records of opponents that teams will face on the road in 2010-11. In parentheses is that team’s record at home and on the road last year. Following that is a sentence or two of influential factors.

Sorted by last year’s finish:

Old Dominion: 47-34 combined 2009-10 home record of opponents that ODU will face on the road in 2010-11 (ODU was 9-0 home, 6-3 road in 2009-10). Lost first team All CAA player Gerald Lee and role player Marsharee Neely. Adds key redshirt guard Josh Hicks.

Northeastern: 49-32 (7-2 home, 7-2 road). Lost first team All CAA player Matt Janning, as well as Manny Adako and Nkem Ojougboh. Chase Allen returns, and progression of last year’s freshman class is important. May be classic “better in February than December” team.

William & Mary: 48-33 (6-3 home, 6-3 road). Loses heart and soul in David Schneider, and enigmatic Danny Sumner. Kendrix Brown back healthy (bum foot last year) and good freshman class. JM Ludwick continues their tradition of funky but effective shooters.

Mason: 48-33 (7-2 home, 5-4 road). No significant losses–role players Lou Birdsong and Kevin Foster. Maturation of Sherrod Wright and Johnnie Williams key, as well as Cam Long choosing to be a superstar.

VCU: 45-36 (8-1 home, 3-6 road). Larry Sanders goes pro, but those close to VCU saw the Rams looked more cohesive with Sanders on the bench. Highly rated freshman class important, as is Jamie Skeen becoming a block force.

Drexel: 45-36 (7-2 home, 4-5 road). Core is back, most notably point guard Jamie Harris and soph Chris Fouch (fr to soph jump huge here). Kevin Phillip matters, as does Gerald Colds’s three-point percentage.

Hofstra: 47-34 (5-4 home, 5-4 road). No idea where to start here. New coach, two all freshman team players transfer out. Charles Jenkins is defending POY. Mike Moore coming in. Brad Kelleher finally plays. You tell me.

Towson: 48-33 (3-6 home, 3-6 road). Troy Franklin’s head is screwed on straight and Brian Morris hits the weights. Isaiah Philmore also needs to make that freshman-to-sophomore jump. Josh Thornton will be a little bigger loss than most think. Erique Gumbs is back, and Bob Nwankwo is a rock.

Georgia State: 53-28 (4-5 home, 1-8 road). Rod Barnes has eight new faces and loses Joe Dukes–as steadying influence for his team as existed in the conference. Jihad Ali looked very good late last year.

UNCW: 53-28 (2-7 home, 3-6 road). Until I started this exercise, it hadn’t hit me that UNCW lost seven of nine games at Trask. Wow. Anyway, Buzz Peterson is going to breathe some life into the program. John Fields is back, as is Chad Tomko and importantly Keith Rendleman. They have some pieces and parts.

James Madison: 52-29 (4-5 home, 0-9 road). The Dukes could be loaded. Give ‘Em Hell and Julius Wells return, and Devon Moore and Andrey “Drago” Semenov return from injury. Losing Darren White is a shame, but a summer of being beaten on will help Trevon Flores.

Delaware: 50-31 (3-6 home, 0-9 road). Lest ye forget, Brian Johnson is back. The Mc’s will also help, because it’s their second year in the program. Adam Pegg is gone, but Jawan Carter and Fonzie Dawson return.

I need time to stew over everyone. What say you?

Back up to full speed next week, and that is a promise. We’ve made significant progress on two multi-part summer features, and paying work is cranking along. We all needed the break anyway.

However I continue to read good stuff, and I have two items to pass along for your weekend amusement.

First, a quick and informative article about the tournament field expanding to 68 teams.

Some interesting between-the-lines overanalysis on my part: there are three proposals currently being evaluated to establish the eight teams in the play-in round–the bottom eight teams, the last eight teams selected as at large, and a hybrid of both.

Kent State athletic director Laing Kennedy and NEC commissioner Noreen Morris both speak out about the stigma of the lower RPI conferences annually being one of the last eight seeds and in the play-in round.

Meanwhile, UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero (the committee chairman) and Ohio State AD Gene Smith are both “sensitive” to that issue. In fact, Smith has your money quote:

“Being stigmatized … is probably not the best thing for the tournament or those conferences.”

I’ll leave you to pick out the comedy.

(Side note: you’re reading this here thanks to John Gasaway, via Twitter, linking to an AP report on ESPN.com. Yes, the way we consume information is different.)

***

Eamonn Brennan is a must-read because he’s one of the best at mixing humor, news, commentary, and analysis. If we could only get an ESPN editor to let him do what he does best–freaking write–he’d be back to the 98-mph fastball he had at Yahoo. Those videos and chats are a waste of his talent. But I digress…

Brennan wrote this yesterday (via The Leisure of the Theory Class) about coaches sitting star players because of theoretical foul trouble. We love smart around here, and this is smart.

I’ve long bemoaned My Coach sitting a star when he gets his second foul in the first half. Benching your 20-point, eight-rebound guy with 12 minutes to go in the first half–FOR THE REST OF THE HALF–has always been the dumbest thing I’ve ever second-guessed. (See what I did there?)

Finally, smart people have written what has always made me squirm: you know your star player is going to score zero points if he’s sitting next to you. Brennan also picks out the key finding, put in a smart guy’s way:

To make it as stark as possible, observe that the coach is voluntarily imposing the penalty that he is trying to avoid, namely his player being taken out of the game!

Here’s my practical belief, based on what coaches have told me over the years. Every single coach has said the most critical part of a game is when you are up or down eight points. Why? Because what happens next is critical to whether or not the rest of the game–and thus concepts like foul trouble–have any meaning or value.

Let’s say you are leading 23-15 at the under 12 media timeout, and your star player has just picked up foul #2. Sit him to protect him from foul trouble?

Leave him in and perhaps the trend and momentum continue…the eight-point game may become a 15-point game, and suddenly you have the luxury of wiggle room to sit/rest your star.

Or, you can put him on the bench and risk the eight-point lead being whittled to 37-36 at the half, and you’re in a dogfight.

Take the other side: you are down eight. Star player can be on the floor and put the team on his back and carve that deficit to 37-36. Or, sit him, trail 43-28 at the half, and get your walk-on excited for possible playing time. Star Player foul trouble is way down the list of worries.

Now, I admit that specific scenarios can be debated and must factor in: home/road, propensity to pick up the third foul, bench strength, etc. But my point is this: I’ll take the imminent foul trouble risk with the reward of star player production to keep me in the game over the imminent risk of a game getting away from me with the reward of having the star player on the floor late.

I know it matters now. It might not matter later.

Put another way: who else thought Paul Westhead was genius/gutsy for playing Bo Kimble in the first half with three, then four fouls? Kimble wasn’t helping anybody with his sweats on.