The two meetings in the regular season produced 115 total possessions: 59 and 56.
Last night, William & Mary didn’t have a double-figures scorer in its victory over Northeastern. The Pugs were led by Danny Sumner’s eight points (”Congratulations Danny,” said David Schneider in last night’s press conference.)
Tony Shaver used this fact to say that his bunch is probably not as talented as Old Dominion, but he likes their ability to play as a team. After Sumner, five players scored six or seven points against the Huskies.
One of those players was Quinn McDowell, who has been blanketed in his two Richmond games. The conference’s leading three-point gunner has scored 16 total points on 1-6 shooting from beyond the arc. Prior to getting off teh bus in Richmond, McDowell had not been held to less than double figures points in back-to-back games this season. Keep an eye on that.
The ODU winning scenario played out on February 3. The Monarchs pounded the glass, winning the battle 48-25 and reeling in 23 offensive rebounds. When the Monarchs play ping pong on the offensive glass, they don’t lose. Plus, ODU shot 40% from the field and took care of the basketball (11 turnovers).
We stated it before but it bears repeating: once Old Dominion gets the ball to its post player, it’s too late. Gerald Lee is too skilled and Frank Hassell too workmanlike. Somebody is shooting from close, and the other guys are crashing the boards.
Look at it this way: when was the last time you can remember ODU successfully throwing a pass on the block, and then it came back out for an open three? It wasn’t this weekend. You’d think Old Dominion would fire away at will from the arc, with the double teaming and focus inside. But they don’t. Perhaps a conference-worst 30.1% from three is why. This is further testament to ODUs interior strength.
You have to make life difficult for the ODU guards–make their passes difficult–or you are toast. It will interesting to see how this plays out tonight. Brian Mull pointed out during the Northeastern game that on many possessions, William & Mary had four players operating around the foul line and key. The Pugs were giving away the baseline in order to stop the dribble drives and outside shots.
How W&Ms nasty combination zone, man-to-man, matchup zone defense alters ODUs offensive flow is what I’m watching. (Wasn’t there an amoeba defense somebody ran at one point? I’ll have to look that up.) This is of course, after rebounding.
In the January meeting, The Pugs held their own on the backboards. ODU won the battle only 40-32 and grabbed just 14 offensive rebounds. ODU shot about the same percentage from the field in each game, but the Monarchs took 60 field goals and 18 free throws in the blowout, and 55 shots and 11 free throws in the close game. That may not seem like much, but a 40%FG and 75%FT accuracy would net ODU another 12 points.
The Pugs also hit 10 threes in that game.
Tony Shaver won’t mince words: they have to shoot the three well to win. We all know that. In fact, ODU underscores the importance of that. The Monarchs hit three threes against VCU, two of which won’t be forgotten: we’re talking to you Marsharee Neely and Ben Finney. But there was teh VCU bombs that kept them in it, and David Schneider’s only bucket last night.
Hanging tough early is also important. As we’ve mentioned, more than one coach told me this year the problem with playing The Pugs is that they come out of the locker room and play harder. You get just a smidgen fatigued, lose a tiny bit of focus, and a Pug is backdoor for a layup. Or gets just enough daylight for a three.
I have to wonder if the Monarchs will start a little starstruck, which helps keep W&M close early. Then, a little late fatigue. This is the ultimate goober “game-within-a-game” stuff.
And I note: if ODU gets running early and beating up the glass, all that is off the board.
