Quickly:

Towson at Georgia State: This is a bad spot for Pat Skerry. His squad must face a team that’s (1) one of the best defenses in the Association; (2) playing a style–matchup zone–you don’t much see; and (3) playing with a lot of confidence. The Panthers are coming off (yet another) big win and are tied atop the CAA at 4-1.

This game screams letdown, and unfortunately all that impacts is margin of victory. It’s a pleasant, sunny 73 degrees in Hunterville.

Georgia State 65, Towson 47.

Hofstra at Old Dominion: I always cringe when I write this next line, but it matters: how the officials call the game will have a large impact on Hofstra’s ability to win. Not good or bad or foul disparity, but how they choose to call the game.

Here’s what we mean–Hofstra is very good at getting to the foul line, and when they get there they make them (Delaware end-game notwithstanding). The Pride gets 27.1% of its points from the line–3rd nationally–and make more than 71%. Obviously a tightly-called game with Old Dominion’s defensive aggressiveness matters.

The Monarchs need to keep moving forward. Right now they are the monster trucks of the league–there is nothing pretty and nothing hidden, but they keep steamrolling the opposition and barely getting over the pile. This game will be closer than you think.

Gravediggers 60, Calvin Murphy’s 57.

William & Mary at Northeastern: This matchup reminds me of the Old Dominion/Delaware game earlier this week–both teams can prove something with a win. The Huskies have fattened up on the bottom of the conference–their opponents have a combined CAA record of 1-14. However a win brings them to 4-2 in the CAA and winners of five of six. They would be exactly where they need to be–playing well, and  headed into the ODU/Drexel gauntlet and with no bad losses.

The Tribe, despite the hand-wringing of its Godawful start, are a winnable roadie away from being 3-3 in the conference. Quinn McDowell is 19-32 from the field in their last three games, including 7-14 from deep. He appears to have his sea legs. And with Brittner and #Beasthoven showing signs of life, Tony Shaver has to feel like he’s weathered the storm. We shall see.

NU likes to minimize possessions, keep it close, and take its chances.

Dogs 62, Pugs 60.

Mason at James Madison: Put simply, the Dukes don’t have great body language. For all his talent and aggressive forays rimward, AJ Davis looks disengaged. That puts strain on a team that is playing short-handed as-is. Humpty Hitchens is playing his fool head off and with passion but he is clearly run down after logging more than 36 minutes per game in their last six games.

That’s a bad combination playing a Mason team that is looking to prove something to itself. The Patriots played 20 outstanding minutes and 35 very good minutes against Drexel before falling apart late. Paul Hewitt wants them to sing, sing a new song. (Come on, G: TB…don’t fail me here.)

Great rivalry game with a lot of heat.

Mason 73, JMU 62.

PS–hey Mason fans, do you still want to be called Mason and not George Mason? I try to follow what the school wants, and this may be an abandoned concept.

VCU at Delaware: Rebounding is an interesting subplot, and not for the reasons you think. The Hens are known to get after the glass and VCU known to get pounded on the boards. However VCU has outrebounded nine of its last 11 opponents, and Delaware grabs an offensive rebound on just 29.3% of its possessions–bottom quarter of the nation.

Not a subplot: turnovers. Obviously the Rams love to turn you over and have the gaudy national ranking, and Delaware is protective of its desire to shoot (turnover rate of 19% is 72nd nationally). We found out a lot about Delaware in its overtime loss to ODU earlier this week. We will find out more about the Hens by Saturday night. The winner keeps pace at 4-2.

Rams 68, Hens 62.

Drexel at UNCW: Short rest and a trip to the beach for the Dragons. It spells disaster. Not so fast, my friends.

The Dragons have won nine of 10 games, including two impressive homers over VCU and George Mason (the reason for the supposed letdown). But get this: in those two huge wins, Samme Givens and Chris Fouch combined for 26 total points. Fouch missed all four three-pointers. Run that back through your mind and the expected contributions of Fouch and Givens, and tell me what that means to you.

Here’s what it means to me: even if Damion Lee lets down and Frantz Massenat melts down, Drexel has Givens and Fouch to lean on. Plus–and this is really where the difference resides for me–the Dragons have the length to bother Adam Smith, and the girth to crowd Keith Rendleman.

Drexel 64, UNCW 60

Hoo-baby, did we see some performances last night–individuals and team. None were more impressive that Damion Lee’s 20 seconds of swish that provided the margin in Drexel’s win over George Mason.

The Drexel freshman hit three straight threes in 90 seconds for the Dragons, changing a two-point deficit into a five-point lead. The impressive part is two-fold. First, the threes came with less than four minutes to play in a tightly-contested CAA rock fight. That’s stones. Second, the final two bombs came 20 seconds apart, and the last one was a quick-trigger rifle shot six seconds into a Drexel possession.

I’m not afraid to say it brought me off the couch.

Here’s something you shouldn’t lose in Lee’s end-game heroics. He also made four steals, and even more importantly hit two layups in transition in the middle of the first half. Drexel had missed 15 of its first 17 shots and Mason had them on the ropes. Lee kept Drexel close enough to make the end-game matter.

One thing that stood out to me was Mason’s self-inflicted problems in the second half. The Patriots were incredible with ball pressure in the first half–Drexel missing so many shots was more credit to Mason than detriment to Drexel. But in the second half that intensity slowly waned, and Drexel got much better looks as the game progressed.

Also, the Patriots made some nifty “extra passes” early but forced bad shots late. The good news for Paul Hewitt is those are correctible. (Sorry–I must use ” ” around cliches I hate.)

One other item: Mason freshman Eric Copes had seven first half blocks. Seven. I counted four of them that were not garden variety blocks, too. Way impressive. Useless but fun stat: Drexel was 9-28 (32%) from the field in the first half, but 9-21 (42%) on shots not blocked by Eric Copes.

***

I don’t know this for a fact, but I’d wager your mortgage they’re still partying in Atlanta. Georgia State put together a 48-point second half and blew open a tight game in its win over UNCW.

The AJCs Doug Roberson with great detail.

Philosophical stat: when you have a guy (Eric Buckner) that has as many blocked shots as you have team turnovers (five), your chances of winning are greatly increased. Once again, the Georgia State was very lucky–they played a team on a night that team happened to struggle offensively.

Brian Mull breaks it down.

Of note to me: If you weren’t Keith Rendleman, you were part of shooting 13-44 (29.5%). Rendleman was 8-11 from the field in his 23/13 night. I’m saying it now–Rendleman is putting together a player of the year season.

***

VCU put on an impressive team performance in its win over James Madison. The Dukes trailed 42-41 with about 12 minutes to play, but were outscored 23-4 the rest of the way. The VCU defense held the Dukes without a field goal over the final 7:59, and it was just the third time in 16 games this season that JMU connected on fewer than six three-pointers (4).

Both coaches agreed the cumulative effect of havoc caught up to JMU.

“I do think the press had a cumulative effect tonight, and our style of play was able to wear them down,” said VCU Coach Shaka Smart. “I think they got a little tired.”

Matt Brady agreed.

“It certainly has a cumulative effect on us. We don’t have a deep team. We don’t see a lot of pressure. Even in practices, there isn’t a lot we can do because we’ve only got nine guys.”

Star of the game honors go to VCU freshman Treveon Graham, who tied a career-high with 18 points. However very similar to Drexel’s Damion Lee, Graham was a life-raft when VCU was struggling in a first half sea of bricks and choppiness.

There was a mini-dust up between JMUs Andrey Semenov and VCUs Troy Daniels, and we only point it out to give you today’s reason why we’re Matt Brady fans at CAAHoops–he tells it like he sees it, and there is no sugar-coating.

“Andrey Semenov does get frustrated and I’ve had that conversation with him,” he said. “I think he fouled the VCU player. The VCU player probably retaliated. I know I would. We need Andrey to smarter, so I take responsibility for Andrey, to be honest with you, because he’s not learned that lesson. That’s on me.”

***

Standings will produce lots of thoughts. They are yours…for now:

Mason:   4-1

ODU:   4-1

Georgia State:  4-1

VCU:   3-2

Drexel:   3-2

UNCW:   3-2

Northeastern:  3-2

Delaware:  3-2

Wlm & Mary:  2-3

JMU:   1-4

Hofstra:  0-5

Towson:  0-5

An opposing coach once told me his greatest fear about playing VCU in the Siegel Center, the loud home court of the Rams.

“Dunks and threes; dunks and threes.”

He explained further. VCU has the talent to beat you straight up in their sets and that’s fine. He feared a torrent of threes or a backboard shaking, fan-quaking dunk for exactly that reason. The fans.

“Nobody, and I mean nobody is even close, nobody responds to its fans more than VCU. They can go from tough to a higher level if their fans get going.”

It makes sense, and that must be one of Matt Brady’s bigger concerns tonight. VCU is staring at its conference record 11th straight sellout–a hungry fan base and an  angry basketball team is a dangerous mixture. Tough games can become blowouts behind a dunk-then-fan-fueled 15-2 run.

VCU wins this game, and the margin will be determined by dunks and threes.

VCU 75, James Madison 60.

***

I’m not supposed to openly cheer, but I admit I’m cheering for a lot of things in tonight’s UNCW/Georgia State game. First–anything important is contained in Brian Mull’s preview.

But I’m rooting for overtime. Multiple overtimes. I want Adam Smith to score 46 points; Keith Rendleman to post a 31/22 double-double. And while we love what Buzz Peterson is doing in my future hometown, we want Georgia State to win this game.

It’s simple. Georgia State was the very definition of moribund until this year. The Panthers drew fewer than 1,000 fans per game, but now, thanks to the efforts of folks like Nick Bray establishing Hunterville, there is the possibility of selling out tonight.

I’m rooting that those fans and those kids get paid off with a 98-97 five overtime thriller. Nothing rewards effort like victory, and this fan base could use it, with energy. You want Association growth? Programs like Georgia State growing and succeeding is a big part of that.

Despite that, we’re thinking rock fight.

Georgia State 66, UNCW 60.

***

Here’s how topsy turvy and fun this early season has been. Mason at Drexel is a heavyweight bout. No matter which way you put them, the two teams were the preseason top two teams. But eyes feel like they are more focused on the matchup between 3-1 UNCW and 3-1 Georgia State.

Weird.

Both are playing better than they’ve played all season. Mike Morrison and Frantz Massenat have gone from guys we talk about to making the Colonial X. I’ll be honest–I’m out of time for in-depth analysis but cannot wait to see this one.

Drexel 59, Mason 55.

The bloggers poll continues to be a fun exercise–VCU went from unanimous first to third, and Mason is a near-unanimous #1.

Also–and I wanted to separate this from game-action–here’s the story of Ron Hunter’s involvement with Samaritan’s Feet, a charity dedicated to providing shoes for children in underprivileged nations.

They are doing great work, and here’s where you can donate to the cause. Perspective: one of your biggest problems is that your favorite college basketball team cannot stop dribble penetration. One of their biggest problems is they have no shoes.

***

Last night certainly lived up to billing, no? We had an overtime thriller that ended with a buzzer-beating tip in, a game that was finalized in the final three possessions inside 10 seconds, and Towson hung tight with William & Mary for 30 minutes.

Here’s the funny thing that may mean nothing, but I scribbled it on the back of my health insurance bill so it’s at worst interesting. All three winners started very slowly. ODU missed 10 of its first 13 shots and trailed Delaware 14-5. Northeastern bricked its first eight shots and gave the Pride a 9-0 run to start but came back to win. The Tribe committed five fouls, had two turnovers, and missed all five shots in falling behind Towson 6-0 at the first media timeout.

Eh, we’re goobers that way. It’s what we do. One day you’ll glom onto one of those stats.

***

William & Mary and Towson were tied with about 11 minutes to play when the bottom dropped out for the Tigers. The Tribe went on a 16-0 spurt over the next eight minutes to win. It was another nicely constructed game for Tony Shaver. Quinn McDowell scored 26 points, hitting 9-13 from the field. Ken Brown had the ideal stat line for his contributions–five points and 10 rebounds. And we have a Julian Boatner sighting: 4-7 from three.

The next step for William & Mary–getting Brandon Britt and Marcus Thornton playing very well in the same game. It seems like it’s either one or the other. Also, Shaver mentioned #Beasthoven in his postgame comments for his consistency and best overall game of the year. Our Man had eight points, eight rebounds, and five assists.

Pat Skerry continues to give exactly zero inches:

“Our concentration, which I would consider our communication, I’m not happy with. They’re not sustaining it,” Skerry said. “We have a group of guys that play very hard but haven’t proven to sustain it concentration wise and communication wise. We won’t get any [wins] if we don’t communicate and have great effort and concentration for 40 minutes, that’s reality.”

AND:

“Every chance to play, at this stage of the program, it’s an evaluation and an audition for guys,” Skerry said. “So, we try to see during the crunch of the game who can execute and make winning plays.

***

Old Dominion fans can credit CAAHoops for jump-starting their season. Kent Bazemore clearly read Tuesday’s column about the season no longer being early, and that teams needed to step on the gas. Bazemore took that heart and posted a 27-point, 12-rebound, three-assist, one-turnover stud muffin game to guide ODU over Delaware in overtime.

YouDee led by 10 at the half but cold shooting early in the second half provided the Monarchs the forum for a 17-5 run to take the lead. It was a heavyweight bout from there. Dealware’s freshman gunner Kyle Anderson bombed in a three in the final seconds, but Bazemore hit two free throws with less than three seconds left to send the game to overtime, and Chris Cooper tipped in a Bazemore miss at the overtime buzzer for the win.

It was Old Dominion’s fifth overtime game this year. The gaudy stat: ODU moves to 4-1 in conference, and three of those wins are roadies. Keep this one in mind, too, as you celebrate the offensive exploits. The Monarchs held Jamelle Hagins scoreless. Zippo. They managed to force Hagins to commit two early fouls, which sent him to the bench in the first half. However Hagins was never a factor.

For YouDee, it’s worth noting that Josh Brinkley more than picked up the slack–a 16/11 double-double. Also, Anderson played 44 of the 45 minutes and led the Hens with 17 points.

All kidding aside, this may turn out to be the game Monarchs fans have been havering to occur–a healthy Baze with his old explosion and swagger. Until last night it was clear Bazemore was trying his fool’s best to be that guy, but it just wasn’t there. Listening to Ed Miller and Bazemore, that may all be different from this point forward:

Miller: Bazemore looked every bit the veteran player comfortable in the moment, playing with both calm and urgency, jab-stepping and hesitation-dribbling, or simply rising up and hitting shots.

Bazemore, to Miller: “Oh yeah, baby,” Bazemore said when asked if he was finally feeling comfortable. “It’s about to be on.”

***

Out on The Island, Hofstra suffered another tough loss. This time Notheastern finished the game by scoring on 17 of its final 19 possessions to turn a seven-point deficit into a 64-62 victory. (Stat credit: Defiantly Dutch) The Pride drops to 0-5 and have lost the five games by a total of 28 points, and 17 of those were in the VCU loss. Quick math–that four losses by a total of 11 points.

Jon Lee scored 19 of his 21 points in the second half and freshman Quincy Ford hit two free throws in the final minute to provide the margin of victory. The Huskies allow us to trot out our weird stat of the day. Everybody says how tough it is to play in Matthews? Well, NU is 3-0 on the road and 0-2 at home in conference this year. Go figure.

What’s more, NU has won four of five and is taking care of its business–its last five opponents have averaged just 57 points per game, and NU has turned the ball over 14 or fewer times in those games. There is some calculation within both of those stats that screams efficiency.

***

Three more tonight, folks. We have it better.

Greetings. Tonight’s games, presented without cackle:

Old Dominion (3-1) at Delaware (3-1): I’m absolutely fascinated by this game, and before you spear me let me tell you why: have we ever seen this matchup and been able to say the best big man, the best scoring guard, and the best freshmen belong to Delaware? Not even close.

And yet ODU hits the floor with a very good chance of winning. It seems people are afraid of the ODU story, not this year’s team, and why not? (Credit: someone else.) But when you peel the onion and suffer the eye test, they don’t look like the same team. Put another way: Martha Stewart has served jail time and is awfully intimidating, but today, she is a cook. No more, no less.

Here’s the other side: despite every bit of angst piled onto this season’s ODU team, I want you to look back up at the bolded, underlined part of this section and tell me what the numbers say.

Blaine Taylor is often credited with taking spare parts in November and Frankensteining a monster by midseason. This year may turn out to be his best coaching job yet. It’s easy to see the Monarchs are short-handed and their shooting coach is Abby Normal. However there’s the three, and there’s the one.

Perhaps that’s why tonight is so intriguing to me: we’re going to find out something about two teams; I’m just not sure what.

But I must pick something, so here goes…ODU has won just three times since December 3–VMI, and conference wins over JMU and Towson (combined CAA record is 1-7). Plus, Delaware is quietly playing solid defense–their 42.3 two-point FG% defense is 25th nationally, and the effective FG% defense is 44.0% (36th nationally).

We’ll ease off Delaware’s two victims also being 1-7 in CAA play. Both Hofstra and William & Mary are better than their record.

Cliche alert: free throws and a big three with 1:36 to play are the difference.

You Dee 58, Oh Dee You 56.

***

Northeastern (2-2) at Hofstra (0-4): To me, this is one of those games that is more about the next game, and all the touchy-feely stuff that makes up more of this whole enchilada than we want to admit.

For the Huskies, this represents the “any road victory is a good victory in the CAA,” especially since they host William & Mary Saturday before a tough stretch of the schedule. A win here gives NU all the warm fuzzies it needs to dispatch the Pugs. Hence, NU would be 4-2. Lose this game, and NU/W&M turns into a toss up.

Mo Cassara’s team just needs a win, period. As we mentioned yesterday, they are playing far better than 0-4, and they are not missing Charles Jenkins’s production as much as they are missing his guts. And make no mistake, guts is what wins this game, especially with Drexel and ODU looming.

I think three point shooting tells the story here. Clanks will negate interior rebounding strengths and give rebounding opportunities to guards–and we like Mike Moore there. Swishes build confidence and we like Mike Moore there.

Pride 71, Huskies 65.

***

William & Mary (1-3) at Towson (0-4): Insults directed at this game show a clear lack of creativity, sensibility, and intelligence. Kids play and coaches coach, I don’t care the level.

That said, this game gives William & Mary one thing it hasn’t had since early December–a game against a team whose success isn’t predicated on offense. That said, they will also get to shoot against a Towson team not known for defense.

If the Tribe can shoot 40% it will win going away. The key is to look for continued maturation of Marcus Thornton, as well as frustration and fear. If the game is tight as we get under eight minutes to go, you can bet the players know what’s at stake. I don’t care what anybody says in postgame.

Keep plugging along, Towson–we’re with you.

Tribe 68, Towson 54.

We’ll get to game action later today, as we have three on the slate (hey boss–stop with the meetings already!). Until then, enjoy some links and quality reading material:

Brian Mull’s Colonial X–one of my most favorite weekly reads–has made its return. It doesn’t disappoint, touting new stars with names like Hagins, Rendleman, and Ali.

A challenge to Mr. Mull: there are so many talented freshmen in the Association this year, tell your boss I approve additional pay to construct Freshman Colonial X.

***

Our friends at Gheorghe: The Blog sent their This Week In Wrenball post live this morning. Nice tidbits from the futile superfans, including:

Then, four games ago, Tony Shaver inserted Thornton into the starting lineup. W&M only won one of those four, but the team that had lost its previous four contests against Division I opponents by an average of 29.8 points suddenly found confidence, beating James Madison before playing George Mason and Delaware close until the final minutes. Thornton’s shot selection has improved along with his defense, and the entire team’s body language. They’re still a work in progress, giving up too many turnovers and not creating enough, while lacking a real inside presence, but a season that once appeared to be a complete loss offers a glimmer of hope. If nothing else, we get to witness the Education of Marcus Thornton, a story that’ll give us a lot of reasons to cheer.

***

Around the Horns provides an outstanding analysis of VCUs offensive struggles.

***

The Dagger looks at Mason’s improved point guard play.

We’ve reached, essentially, the quarter-pole of CAA play. Four games down, 14 to go. (Technically speaking, the quarter pole hits at halftime of this week’s weekday game, but who’s counting?) Seriously, that means one hard fact. It’s cold and jarring, like that moment you step out of the warmth of your home and into winter’s air. A reality that may slip past you but it had better not, not if you want to sit in the stands on Friday, March 2.

The fact: it’s no longer early. That means it’s time for teams to figure it out, and fast, or they will risk a more stringent Thursday practice in the Richmond Coliseum. It’s that, or start playing like Mason last February or VCU last March.

Here’s where we are, the jumping off point.

Note: all statistics are for the four conference games only. It’s a far smaller sample size, but because nonconference schedules are all over the place, and we get a true matchup of conference teams, and the recency of the last three games, I feel like it’s a better representation. (Okay, four if you count JMUs win over Hampton last night.)

Mason (4-0): The Patriots have looked like that Swiss guy that hikes up the hill in the old Price Is Right game–they’ve made slow but steady progress towards being a good basketball team. That they are still a work in progress makes 4-0 all the better. But they’d better watch out–the next two games are at Drexel and at JMU; then get a homer against Delaware that isn’t a check-box win. Plus, their schedule gets very difficult down the stretch.

Delaware (3-1): You may not have noticed, but the Hens have the league’s second-ranked offense (when figuring conference games only), scoring 1.07 points per possession. The quick maturation of freshmen Kyle Anderson and Khalid Lewis has a lot to do with that success–it gives YouDee four attacking options. The Hens will continue to delight and frustrate fans because Anderson and Lewis are freshmen (and Devon Saddler has a few 6-21s left in him). We’ll find out a lot quickly: next up is home vs. VCU, at Mason, home vs. Georgia State.

UNCW (3-1): The Dubmen have the only offense ranked higher than Delaware, but also have the league’s most porous defense (1.10 defensive points per possession). Here’s the thing–Buzz Peterson admitted he knew defense wouldn’t be a strength, and the Hawks are maximizing their strengths very well right now. Keith Rendleman is putting together not just a great season, but perhaps a special season, and he’s getting support. UNCW is at Georgia State next, followed by a homer versus Drexel. As I look into late January, the Hawks have a good mix of games.

Old Dominion (3-1): Stop me if you’ve read this before–ODU has the CAAs second best defense, a middling offense, and is killing the league on the glass (they grab 58.5% of available rebounds, tops in the league by a wide margin). The problem remains the lack of easy baskets. You can see the want-to in Kent Bazemore, and Chris Cooper has strong hands and a nose for the basketball. However Bazemore is widly inefficient, and Cooper is struggling to make put-backs. That may catch up to them eventually. This week’s Delaware game may loom large in terms of position–ODU hosts Hofstra and then travels to Towson, both winless teams, afterward. They could be 6-1 going into the VCU game.

Georgia State (3-1): “We’ll see what the Panthers are made of made of by January 10″ was a common Christmas refrain. Well, I think we have our answer. Plus, Hunter practiced his team harder this week under the guise of “we’ve accomplished nothing.” I like that. Get this: Georgia State is holding CAA opponents to 0.74 points per possession. For those that don’t follow tempo free, that’s extremely good. Most importantly, Ron Hunter has them believing, which is a non-percentage but critical facet to victory. Next up: Delaware and Towson at home, followed by Northeastern and Delaware on the road.

Drexel (2-2): I still like the Dragons better than most people. Losses at Delaware and at Georgia State, two 3-1 teams, isn’t exactly sneezing material. And the way Frantz Massenat controlled the VCU game was astounding. Let me put it this way: if I would’ve told you Samme Givens and Chris Fouch would shoot a combined 2-16 and score a combined 12 points, and no Dragon would grab 10 rebounds, do you think they would win? They did. They’re good. After Mason, they go to Wilmington and then a trapper at Hofstra.

VCU (2-2): The Rams are probably the best example I have of “it’s no longer early.” Players have adjusted to new roles, freshmen have played meaningful minutes, and they know defense sets up the offense. That’s the point: they know what they have to do. Now, it’s a matter of execution–do they have the maturity to carry out the plan? That’s a double-edged sword for Shaka Smart. VCU hosts JMU, goes to Delaware, and hosts W&M and then ODU. They can build momentum. In fact, now that I think about it, VCU is the perfect No Longer Early sample.

Northeastern (2-2): It’s no surprise NU is the middle of the pack. Thy score as much as they give up. They aren’t rebounding (45.2% rebound rate is 11th) but are definitely shooting well–second overall and first in two-point field goal percentage (51.2%). It all seems to come down to ballhandling–the turnover rate is 22.7%, 10th. It’s the old adage: in order to make a shot, you have to take a shot. Statistically: in their two wins, OPP was 1.09 and 1.04. In their two losses, OPP was 0.86 and 0.95–and the 0.95 was against UNCW, the league’s worst defensive team. The Huskies are at Hofstra, then home to W&M and Georgia State. Make hay now, as roadies at Drexel and ODU follow.

James Madison (1-3): Weird team, these Dukes. We’ve talked all year about their potent offense and troubling defense, but in four CAA games JMU has the ninth-best offense (0.91ppp) and seventh-best defense (1.00ppp). They’re struggling to shoot the three despite being loaded with gunners. Now they may not get Julius Wells back until early February, and I have to wonder if we’ve all been wrong for three years. Perhaps Wells firing at will has been helpful to them, not a detriment. It’s a bad shot on one possession, but maybe that has freed others in future possessions? Just saying, it’s worth a thought. Could be a season-defining stretch for them: wrong-place wrong-time at VCU, then host Mason, then at Georgia State, host W&M, then at Mason.

William & Mary (1-3): Statistically it’s a struggle for the Tribe, who look better than the numbers show. To me, that’s a team putting the wheels back on after an abysmal start. There’s the injuries that Tony Shaver is even tired of talking about, but there’s also one glaring fact: Marcus Thornton is their best player and he is a freshman. A wild, free-wheeling freshman. That doesn’t seem to fit within Shaver’s system but it does. What we haven’t contemplated is Shaver altering his approach to fit his best player, which takes a little more time. Maybe that’s what’s happening, and why we’re seeing a better Pug. At Towson, at Northeastern, and at VCU are next.

Hofstra (0-4): We’d trot out “best 0-4 team in the country” if we (1) didn’t hate that line; and (2) cared about 0-4 teams in other conferences. Here’s where Charles Jenkins’s value is showing. The Pride is middle of the pack statistically but have not won because of the little things. They missed three of four free throws against Delaware; and lost when JMU made plays down the stretch and they did not. Mo Cassara has a 2-2 team staring at 0-4 right now, and it isn’t because of talent. The problem is that the waters get rough from here on out: home NU, at ODU, home Drexel, at JMU, at VCU, home Mason.

Towson (0-4): You’ve read every single story and you know the situation. You have to give Pat Skerry, and his players, credit for hanging very tough for this long. Remember, this was a historically bad 0-19 team last year that lost its four best players. Nobody wants to be “that team,” and next up is William & Mary at home, at Georgia State, Old Dominion at home, at Mason, at Delaware, VCU-home.

***

Tomorrow, perhaps we begin to forecast what the records could be. But even if we eschew that exercise, re-read and think about the coming 10 days and what it could mean for Your Team.

Enjoy today, even if it is a Monday, because you don’t know what tomorrow will bring. But look to tomorrow with excitement and anticipation, because you can make it better than today.

This weekend left you either joyous or pained, but look at schedule for this week–every single midweek game is not just interesting, but loaded with storylines. We’ll look back in detail in a moment, but let’s use the results to set up what I mean:

• UNCW beat Hofstra and Georgia State lost to Mason. That sets up a Thursday tilt in Atlanta between two confident, albeit surprising, 3-1 teams. The winner is 4-1.
• Delaware won on the road in Williamsburg to get to 3-1, and they take on a 3-1 Old Dominion team still looking for its identity. And remember Delaware beat ODU in Newark last year. Combining these two: the four 3-1 teams in the CAA square off this week. That schedule-maker is brilliant.
• Towson hosts William & Mary in the game many think is the last decent chance for the Tigers to get off the schnide this year. The Tribe keeps getting better and could use a blowout victory.
• Mason is fresh off its big win over Georgia State and sitting alone at 4-0. They go to the gym and play the team that will physically challenge you more than anyone else: Drexel. The 2-2 Dragons would feel much better at 3-2 with victories over VCU and Mason, rather than 2-3.
• Northeastern won at JMU and heads home via Hofstra for a game that presents all kinds of mental meandering. The Pride is in search of its first conference victory after three near-misses. They have the comforts of home. Northeastern has played up and down and still looks to be putting things together. The Huskies are 2-2, and to be 3-2 finding yourself is a cap-feather.
• JMU travels to Richmond to play what has to be an angry 2-2 VCU. The Dukes beat the Rams here to close out the regular season last year. They are scuffling at 1-3 and could use a repeat performance. The Rams are tapping their red ruby slippers together.

So yes, let’s look at today-forward and anticipate what this midweek will bring. But as David Byne asked: Well, how did I get here?

***

The Dubmen moved to 3-1 in conference (7-7 overall) and have quietly gone 7-2 in their last nine games. Buzz Peterson got a very good team effort in the 86-80 win, but we especially liked the contributions of the non-Rendleman big men. Freshman Cedrick Williams grabbed five offensive rebounds and had eight total in 17 minutes of action. Matt Wilson added four offensive rebounds and six total in 13 minutes. That’s a combined nine offensive rebounds and 14 total in 30 minutes.

That’s double trouble for UNCW opponents. Offensive rebounds create extra shots for a shooter like Adam Smith, or Rendleman. It also leads to higher shooting percentages–defenses are discombobulated in an offensive rebound situation and frequently give up good looks.

UNCW shot 56% in the first half and 53% for the game. They scored on 1.19 points per possession. There you go.

Peterson was fired up about Wilson’s performance. He told Brian Mull what he wants from Wilson: “Energy. Getting those rebounds. Fighting a little bit in there. Scrapping. Just, get nasty. Get that rebound and everything, get a little toughness in there. He keeps doing that, he’s going to make our team better.”

***

Northeastern and James Madison played 26 minutes of that hand-slapping game we all played as kids. The actual basketball game stood at 40-39 James Madison when NU reeled off 11 straight points.

Now here’s where it got really good: JMU closed to 53-50 and the Huskies were teetering. But NU didn’t fold. Instead, they reapplied pressure to the gas pedal–a 15-6 kick to close the game. What’s important about that is that Northeastern closed strong, and closed strong on the road. The Huskies committed just two second half turnovers.

We’ve been telling you to watch Quincy Ford, and Saturday’s performance not just validated the analysis, it may have the entire conference on alert. The Florida freshman, one of 11 children and who was home-schooled as a high schooler, popped 20 points on 8-11 shooting in the win. Northeastern shot 50 percent from the field and 44 percent (7-for-16) from the arc.

Weirdly, JMU outrebounded Northeastern 31-26. It was the first time in six games JMU had managed that feat and the Dukes entered the game as the league’s worst rebounding team. However they were also the league’s top three-point shooting team but made just one and shot just 10 from beyond the arc. Enoch Hood, another in the hugely talented freshman class in the CAA, had an 11/10 double-double.

***

There was a construction to the Delaware/William & Mary game that left Pugs fans frustrated and Hens fans anticipatory. The Tribe kept giving up runs but kept coming back. William & Mary would get the deficit to four, five, or six and someone from Delaware would hit a big shot to re-extend the lead.

In the end, the Tribe again looked better but came away with a gut-punch loss. And Delaware came away with a strong road win, something rare for the Fightin’ Montays.

I still cannot figure out what to make of Delaware, though here’s what I saw Saturday: they are immensely talented and look unstoppable at times. You know Devon Saddler and Jamelle Hagins, but both freshmen who saw considerable floor time (Kyle Anderson, Khalid Lewis) looked like they belong–you know what we mean by that–and Josh Brinkley played well in spurts.

However the Hens take some God-awful shots on offense and can be broken down on defense (perhaps credit to William & Mary there). That’s how they ended up with separate runs of 12-2, 9-2, and 12-0–in the first half!

Two freshmen were awfully impressive: Anderson, and the Tribe’s Marcus Thornton. Neither was shy with the basketball. Anderson spitfired several threes, and Thornton absolutely attacked the basket.

Anderson reminds me very much of, ironically, W&Ms David Schneider. I’m not comparing the two players, except in this realm: if you stop for a split second to scratch a nose hair, Anderson will fire a three. If you close out on him, he has no issue with driving into the teeth of the defense. Schneider was that way. As for Thornton: Hagins is the conference’s best shot blocker, and Brinkley is a muscled load. Thornton went right at them–twice–and tried to flush a dunk over them.

Note: Hagins had 13 points and 12 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season and eighth in a row.

Quotable: Monte Ross to Kevin Tresolini: “This team is really starting to grow as a program, and if we can continue to improve, we should be OK this season.”

***

In the Mason/Georgia State game, Georgia State’s length clearly bothered Ryan Pearson, who missed all four field goal attempts and had six turnovers. But on a day that’s easy to talk about the Panthers’s resolve and give them credit for continuing to look impressive even in a tight loss–three times in the second half George Mason delivered a knock out blow, only Georgia State didn’t let it knock them out and they came back for more–we have to salute the victors and give them the credit they deserve.

Mason hit their free throws late: 11 of 12 free throws in the last couple minutes, and Mike Morrison easily played the best game of his career–14 points, 15 rebounds, and four blocks. Morrison also hit a big shot late and drew a charge with less than a minute to play. Mason now stands on top of the CAA at 4-0 and the scary part for Mason opponents is that they won a toguh game without getting much from Pearson.

You think Paul Hewitt is having a hard time with tough love on freshman point guard Corey Edwards? COnfused, perhaps? This quote to Steven Goff is more funny than useful: “Corey played very well, but you see why freshman point guards give coaches gray hair,” Hewitt said. “He took the game back from them. They had the game, he came in and took it back, and he almost handed it back.”

Of note: Jihad Ali played 113 of 120 minutes this week. He’s allowed a nap today.

***

Towson lost its 35th straight game, a new record. It was against the team that started the streak, ODU. Ed Miller gives you the hammer sequence:

The Tigers, who scored just 27 points Wednesday in a loss at Drexel, went more than 10 minutes without a field goal in the first half. ODU turned an 8-7 deficit into a 32-9 lead.

For ODU, Towson was the right opponent at the right time, an occasion for reaching deep into the bench early and often.

Forward Jason Pimentel, who had not played in the previous six games, got in with 13:17 left in the first half. Anton Larsen, who had not played in the previous five, also saw first-half action.

Pat Skerry (as told to Miller) is in no mood to be charitable, and this is why Towson is in good hands.

“It’s no secret that we don’t have good enough guards,” Skerry said. “We’ve got backups that are playing starter minutes. That’s the reality, that’s tough for some guys to hear, but it is what it is.

“Unfortunately that’s not going to change for the rest of this year.”

Skerry said his players are “pressing and struggling,” but that he’s told them there’s no place for that as he focuses on trying to improve them.

“This isn’t a business or league or a level for sensitivity of hurt feelings, that’s what I just hold them,” he said. “If their feelings are hurt, if we’re coaching them too hard, if we’re expecting too much, that’s too bad.”

Skerry said he had not given much thought to Towson setting a dubious NCAA record.

“Honestly, the team we have now, we have enough challenges winning any game.”

***

In the Sunday night game, we watched a spirited first half–which said another way was 20 minutes of rock fight basketball that ended in 32-32 tie. Fittingly, the second half told the story.

VCU came out of the locker room with a tweak to its offense. Brad Burgess was stationed down low in the post instead of on a wing or running off screens at the key. It led to two quick baskets and it seemed VCU had momentum. But Drexel didn’t wilt and hung in there, eventually making big plays, winning plays, down the stretch.

You can’t measure energy and effort from your couch, but I don’t think I saw the same edge to VCU last night. Granted, credit should go to Drexel for not backing down, and only turning the ball over 11 times, but more importantly Drexel outscrapped VCU.

The Dragons seemed to beat the Rams to the loose balls, the 50/50 balls, and that held down VCUs ability to create havoc. People will rightfully high-five Frantz Massenat for his 24 points, but I was a huge fan of how he handled the basketball. Derrick Thomas, too.

And Damion Lee went 6-6 from the line down the stretch–well done, freshman. (Note: the Rams were an uncharacteristic 9-20 from the line.

Stat note: VCU threes first half: 7-15. Second half: 0-9.

Get your chores done early tomorrow–a troika of CAAction hits the teevee this weekend. We have two Saturday games on Comcast, starting with Delaware at William & Mary at 4pm. On Sunday night, VCU heads to Philly to take on Drexel.

But at the risk of angering Berto, we don’t want you to watch the televised games this weekend. The night game on Comcast is the early-season tilt between Georgia State and George Mason, and we definitely don’t want you to watch that one. We want you to channel your inner Nick Bray and get to Your Team’s venue. Heck, take a roadie. Nick Bray did–a long roadie.

You may remember the note from yesterday on Bray–a Georgia State student who hopped in his car and was the lone, loud, fun-loving fan of the Panthers in their win over VCU.

Turns out there’s much more to the story.

The journey stared as a simple plan we all invoked when we were young–at some point, probably over a beverage he isn’t even legally allowed to consume, Bray made the irrevocable statement that “I’m driving to Richmond to see the VCU game.” There was no backing down from that statement, and after seven hours in the car Bray found himself at the corner of Harrison and Broad in Richmond.

“This is something I wanted to do, make it to either the VCU game or the Mason game but my bank account told me I could only get to one,” Bray said from his hotel room. “I figured I’d slap myself if I didn’t make the VCU game.”

But a funny thing happened from the time Georgia State won and the time Bray would check out of his hotel.

“It was crazy. I got back and got on PantherTalk and told everyone I had a great experience and it was a lot of fun. Everyone said they saw me on ESPN, it was just great and then somebody aked if I was staying for Mason and I said no but jokingly said that if they chipped in I’d stay. One guy said he’d do it, then another, then another, then another. Next thing I know I have a hotel reservation and (money) in my PayPal account.”

Bray is taking full advantage of his time, too, both to see the sights and get ready for tomorrow’s game.

“I went into DC yesterday and got to see it for the first time,” he said. “I’m from Florida and have family in New York so it’s not in our travel plan. Today I’m kind of tired and my voice isn’t all the way back but I hope it (gets there).”

Bray faces a no-traffic, no-delay eight hour drive on Sunday. Win or lose, traffic or not, was it worth it? Bray answers with a college kid’s voice but a perspective well beyond his years.

“Shhhhh…totally worth it. The VCU game alone would’ve been worth it, but this? My phone has been getting blown up lately. Just being a part of it. It’s already been incredible. I got to go a practice at the beginning of the year. They run more in one day than I’ve run in my entire life. It blows my mind to see it pay off. Guys like Jihad (Ali). I’ve gotten to know him a little. It’s his fifth year here. I know how much it means to him and you can tell. To watch them have fun makes being a fan easy and an eight-hour drive or a 12-hour drive…it’s worth it. I’m having the time of my life because (the players) are having fun. Win or lose, it doesn’t matter. They work so hard and to see them smiling makes it all worth it.”

So yeah, channel your Nick Bray. It’s worth it.

***

Georgia State at George Mason: That’s right. The game. As mentioned in the recap, Mason got a neck-up win over Old Dominion. A roadie, in a place they hadn’t won in a looong time, and you can bet Paul Hewitt will gently point out they didn’t even play their best. Mason has always been a team of confidence, and they have it.

I happen to believe the Bob Gibson approach to Georgia State is accurate. The Panthers are the luckiest team in the Association. They happen to play all these teams on the night they shoot poorly. I’m telling you–I watched it with my own eyes, this is a different Georgia State team. Now I don’t know if they will go 4-14 or 14-4 or somewhere in between. I do know they are WAY better and you’d better take them seriously.

All that said, I believe Mason has a little too much talent, a little too much shooting, and a little too much swagger. Drive safely Nick.

Mason 64, Georgia State 58.

Northeastern at JMU: The glass-half-full guy in me writes this is a game of immovable object meeting the irresistible force. The curmudgeon in me says this is a game that pits a team lost on offense (Northeastern) against a team who remains disinterested in defense (James Madison).

Northeastern has broken 60 points just three times since its big St. John’s victory on Thanksgiving weekend. Interestingly, the Huskies lost all three of those games, but have scored 57 and 53 points in their two victories since then. They still turn the ball over too much (25.5% rate) and cannot seem to put everything together.

Now, I rely on emails from people I trust who go to games for perspective. After the William & Mary/JMU game, one of those people wrote me wondering “is there anybody in the CAA less interested in playing defense than JMU? If so, they are not at all interested.” That said, the final tallies are not putrid and because they go four guards often their turnover and steal numbers are solid.

LATE EDIT: As told to me by another insider, the JMU defense hasn’t been bad. In fact, the Dukes has allowed teams to shoot just 36% combined in the past 190 basketball minutes (since second half of the GW game). The “lack of effort” isn’t lack of effort at all; rather dead tired legs from a rather one-dimensional , three-point shooting team.

Note: this is backed up by Matt Brady’s assertion that the Dukes are playing better but it hasn’t yet showed up in the statistics.

I stand corrected, which is perfectly fine. I’ve also corrected the score.

JMU 68, Northeastern 62.

Delaware at William & Mary: The Hens are on the road, where they’ve lost six of seven (including Radford and Howard). They don’t scare #Beasthoven, who aggravated a shoulder injury first before the James Madison game, and then again late in the second half when Andrey Semenov made borscht of him.

I have to think Monte Ross is eyeing this game keenly. In nearly every interview he uses some form of “winning conference games on the road.” This is exactly the kind of game he is talking about.

The Tribe is figuring things out, for sure. It’s a roles thing. Marcus Thornton continues to improve blending high school aggressive shot-taking with intelligent collegiate shot-making. Ken Brown knows that a two-point, 10-rebound is great, and Brandon Britt is showing signs of life.

While we think Jamelle Hagins will post a 23/17 afternoon, it’s William & Mary that takes the game.

Tribe 67, Hens 64.

Hofstra at UNCW: History note–these two teams played the only CAA tournament final (2006) since 2003 that didn’t involve Mason, VCU, or Old Dominion.

Hofstra is in desperate need for a confidence boosting win, and the Dubmen are already playing that way. That’s a bad combination to bring to Trask.

There’s one other bad combination for the Pride: I don’t know who slows down Keith Rendleman, and even if they do they have to worry about Adam Smith. The sharpshooter is learning how to drive when defenses close out on his shot. The result is the CAAs third most efficient offense (1.06points per possession).

Hofstra can win, but it will take 25 points on less than 20 shots Mike Moore, and a double-double for Dave Imes. The tea leaves just don’t read well here.

UNCW 69, Hofstra 61.

Towson at Old Dominion: It is my duty to point out that this game would be the one Towson loses to break the division one record for most consecutive losses (35). That’s all.

ODU 64, Towson 45.

VCU at Drexel: These two teams seem to always play hard-fought, closely-contested, very fun for the fans games. Four of the past five meetings between VCU and Drexel have been decided by four points or less, and Sunday should be a battle in Philly.

Last year in Richmond Bruiser Flint was double-tech’d in the game’s waning moments and VCU prevailed 52-48. And of course it was a Jamie Skeen buzzer-beater in the CAA tournament quarterfinals that began VCUs run to the Final Four.

But it goes so much deeper, from BA Walker’s 18-foot rattler for a VCU win to Bashir Mason’s 35-foot buzzer beater (and press row dance) to a Robert Battle banker with four seconds left in the 2003 CAA semifinals.

It’s a tough read on this game: both teams just lost to Georgia State. And we can question mark VCUs historic bad shooting night against the Panthers, just as we can Drexel’s win over Towson.

We’ll be basic here: think 42. VCU wins if it shoots 42% from three, and Drexel wins if it grabs 42 rebounds and shoots 42% overall. To me, VCU is a team that needs its maturity to catch up to its talent. Those things start with road wins in the DAC.

VCU 58, Drexel 55.

Last night Mason kept Old Dominion at arm’s length, ultimately winning 63-54. The Patriots played a B-level game–good things and bad things, but more good than bad. They got killed on the boards–22 ODU offensive rebounds–and shot sketchy at times, but they took care of the basketball and played to their strengths (Ryan Perason with a 16/14 double-double and very nice game from Bryon Allen).

It was gaussian enough to render analysis for their performance unnecessary. Ultimately, it’s a road win in a tough environment and is more important come February 4 when the teams meet in Fairfax, and then again in late February when we’re immersed in tiebreaker scenarios. Mentally, it’s a step forward for a team quickly finding its legs.

The story here belongs to ODUs dreadful shooting. The Monarchs hit 29.5% on the night, which is bad enough. However when you factor in the number of point-blank misses, you can feel the groan from fans. (ODU also missed 13 of 25 free throws.)

Here’s the killer number: if you can believe this, 22 offensive rebounds were converted into two points. Two.

“It’s about half befuddling to me to have 22 offensive rebounds and to have two points to show for it,” coach Blaine Taylor told Ed Miller postgame.

For me, it’s full befuddling. Chris Cooper particularly struggled. Cooper was 3-16 from the field and 3-9 from the line. To his credit, Cooper kept at it all night and finished with 14 rebounds (seven offensive). When you factor in Nick Wright’s 1-6 from the field and 0-1 from the line, ODU big men were 4-22 field goals and 3-10 free throws.

Thanks to Steven Goff, we have this dandy from Taylor:

“It’s not like they were [shooting] lights-out. Their lights just weren’t as dim as ours.”

So now we move to the weekend, where 3-0 George Mason hosts 3-0 Georgia State. We’ll get to that later this afternoon.