Let’s get nuts. Sit back, if you can, and enjoy.
Interestingly, Indiana kind of “looks like” Wichita State, when you look at this game from a planning perspective. The Hoosiers are experienced, an offensive juggernaut, can shoot the three, and their big man is their leading scorer. They prefer pretty.
Bullet stats that matter, before the flowery words:
- Indiana averages 77.3 points per game, top 20 nationally.
- Freshman big man Cody Zeller ( 15.5 ppg and 6.4 rpg), shoots 62.4% from the field. He is the younger brother of ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller of UNC.
- Indiana turns the ball over on 19.0% of its possessions (97th nationally)
- The Hoosiers hit 43.6% of their threes, second nationally.
- The winner of this game likely gets Kentucky, who Indiana beat earlier this year.
- Three games ago, Indiana guard Verdell Jones injured his knee and is lost for the year. Jordan Hulls has stepped up, averaging 19.3 points and shooting 68.8% from the field in Indiana’s three postseason games.
- Junior forward Christian Watford is a tough matchup as the big man can play inside and outside, averaging 12.1 points and 5.8 rebounds per game this year. He has connected on 45 treys on the year.
- Find Matt Roth. He’s 43-79 from the field on the year, but 41-74 from three (55.4%). He’s 15-15 from the line.
Jordan Hulls is VCUs new Joe Ragland. Hulls scores 11.9ppg on the year and leads Indiana with 110 assists. He also has 71 turnovers. The plan has to be similar–get Hulls tired, and take him out of the halfcourt offense.
This is where VCU must make Indiana pay for the loss of Jones. The cumulative effect of havoc makes a great player make bad plays, and tired plays. The Hoosiers, like the Shockers, are used to the assault–for 40 minutes–and will have to struggle. When they go option #2, that’s a tired option.
Swingman Victor Oladipo will matter. The 6-5 sophomore plays fast and loose–70 turnovers, and Oladipo will find the ball in his hands often in the open court if VCU is successful getting the ball away from Hulls.
The Rams are going to have to make Zeller earn his points. That means DJ Haley and David Hinton are going to have to use eight of their 10 available fouls. The Reddic vs. Watford matchup will be interesting to watch drift from three point line to high post to baseline.
Somehow I feel like this is going to come down to three-point shooting. VCU needs to hit a good percentage and make eight or more. They have to hold Indiana to less than its season percentage.
And again, the uglier the better for the Rams. Havoc must prevail.
Ken Pomeroy has Indiana winning 74-67 and gives VCU a 27% chance of winning. Interestingly, Pomeroy had Wichita State winning 72-64 and gave VCU a 26% chance of pulling off the upset.
Very similar, and that’s what we will do.
VCU 65, Indiana 62